Based on recent trends, BTC is indeed at a critical juncture. The four-hour chart has already broken through a key support level, the MACD has completed a death cross below the zero line, and the histogram is beginning to turn, indicating a gradually opening downward channel. The current core questions are twofold: can it rebound to the 88,300 level to launch an attack, or will it continue to test the 86,800 level, thereby approaching the strong support zone around 84,000?

On the macro front, tonight at 21:30, the US will release the weekly initial jobless claims data. This data is significant—if employment figures are strong, expectations for Fed rate cuts will cool down, and concerns about market liquidity will increase, potentially bringing a new wave of selling pressure for BTC. However, if the data underperforms, the market’s imagination for easing policies will be reactivated, possibly triggering a rebound. But one phenomenon worth noting: in a downtrend, good news often sinks without a trace, while bad news can stir up turbulent waves.

Looking at the specific chart performance, the situation is not easy. The 88,300 level was previously support but has now turned into resistance. The 90,000 level is even further out of reach. The first defensive line below is 86,800; if this is broken, the next step for the bears will be targeting 84,000. The death cross signal below the zero line on the MACD usually indicates that the downward momentum may be entering a release phase, and each rebound is more likely to encounter stronger suppression.

From a trend perspective, once established, it is not so easy to reverse. Bitcoin has already broken through a key support, and a downtrend structure has been confirmed. Even if a rebound occurs, the space will be quite limited, and the range between 88,300 and 90,000 will still exert strong resistance.