Gold movements today: Price forecasts and performance analysis | November 7, 2025

Current Scene: Anticipation and Relative Stability

The gold market began Friday’s session cautiously, with traders gathering near the $4,000 per ounce level awaiting decisive economic signals. The current price behavior reflects a balance between selling pressures and steady demand from buyers, especially with a noticeable decline in the US dollar’s strength by about 0.5% from its four-month high.

Gold is attempting to reposition itself after a volatile week marked by high interest rates and the greenback’s strength. However, with the dollar’s retreat, external interest in the yellow metal has resumed, particularly among investors outside the United States who now find it more economically attractive.

Major Economic Factors Reshape the Scenario

Accelerating Weakness in the US Labor Market

Latest available data show signs of real slowdown in employment activity. October saw job losses, especially in government and retail sectors, while layoffs plans increased by over 150,000 — the highest rate in more than two decades. Preliminary estimates indicate the unemployment rate rose to around 4.36%, a level not seen in years.

This employment weakness fundamentally changes the monetary policy equation. Markets have raised expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December from 60% to about 69%, reflecting a rapid shift toward easing.

Government Shutdown Deepens Uncertainty

The US government shutdown has now lasted 37 days, forcing markets to rely almost entirely on private sector data. This disruption has effectively impacted economic activity and decision-makers’ ability to understand the true state of the economy. Some vital sectors — such as civil aviation — are beginning to reduce operational capacities.

Although the immediate impact has not been severe, the continuation of the shutdown increases demand for safe-haven assets, primarily gold.

Stocks Under Pressure and Gold Regains Shine

Global markets experienced a coordinated sell-off on Friday, especially in technology and artificial intelligence sectors. The main cause is reassessment — after strong gains in recent months, investors now see current valuations as requiring a more flexible monetary environment amid uncertainty about the rate cut path.

This tension also reflected in Europe and Asia, where losses expanded in major indices, particularly in sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer goods.

In this environment, gold finds clear support. It is an asset that does not generate direct yield but benefits from expectations of rate cuts and reduced holding costs, along with increasing hedging demand.

Geopolitical Developments Reinstate the Hedging Appetite

Geopolitical issues continue to influence market sentiment. Fears of disruptions in supply chains or energy routes prompt major funds to increase their defensive asset allocations. Investors are aware that any shock in these areas could reignite inflation — a scenario nobody wants.

This caution explains the current tendency toward selective selling of risky assets and increased interest in gold as a temporary store of value.

Technical Analysis: Defending Critical Levels

Daily Price Movement

Gold traded near $4,003 per ounce, maintaining a quiet recovery within a clear technical range between $3,977 and $4,008. Liquidity is moderate, indicating market anticipation of stronger catalysts.

The ongoing defense of the $3,928 level — the primary support barrier — suggests that buyers remain organized and have not abandoned their stance. Conversely, resistance at $4,046 remains an obstacle to a strong upward resumption.

Technical Indicators

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53, reflecting a relative recovery without reaching overbought levels. This supports the likelihood of continued sideways movement unless a clear new momentum emerges.

Moving averages show early signs of a bullish rebound on the medium-term chart, but limited trading volume negates the hypothesis of strong confidence among traders at present.

Critical Levels to Watch

Support Lines:

• $3,985 (Immediate Support)
• $3,935 (Secondary Support)
• $3,886 (Primary Support)

Resistance Levels:

• $4,046 (First Barrier)
• $4,100 (Medium Resistance)
• $4,150 (Long-term Target)

Gold Outlook for Next Week

Positive Scenario

If the dollar continues to decline and employment data weaken further, gold may break through resistance at $4,046 and head toward $4,100 then $4,150. This scenario is supported by increasing rate cut expectations and ongoing hedging demand.

Negative Scenario

Breaking support at $3,985 could quickly send prices back toward $3,935. If buyers fail to defend this barrier, a deeper decline toward $3,886 is possible, but this requires stronger conditions than currently present.

Main Outlook

Gold continues to position itself as a preferred safe haven, but the upward path needs confirmation through surpassing key resistances. Next week will be decisive, with new economic data and potential monetary policy developments.

Performance of Other Precious Metals

There is no unified sector momentum — the rally is primarily concentrated in gold, driven by macroeconomic factors rather than broad industrial or investment demand.

Silver remains below a key resistance near $49; a breakout would signal increased demand for other metals. Platinum needs to defend support at $1,500 to avoid entering a deeper downtrend.

This dispersion reinforces gold’s position as the primary and most responsive safe-haven asset to major economic factors.