Gold Price Predictions 2026: Is it Approaching $5000?

Major financial analysts are leaning towards optimistic forecasts regarding gold trends in 2026, with most estimates indicating that the yellow metal could experience new upward waves pushing it toward record levels. After 2025, which saw unprecedented jumps exceeding $4300 per ounce, the question is no longer “Will gold rise?” but “To what level will it go?”

Gold Price Forecast 2026: Actual Figures from Major Banks

HSBC Bank Expectations
The giant British bank has taken a bold outlook, predicting that gold could reach $5000 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with an expected annual average of $4600, significantly higher than the 2025 average of just $3455.

Bank of America Expectations
The large American bank has set the same target at $5000 as a potential peak, with an expected average around $4400, but issued a warning about possible short-term corrections if investors start taking profits.

Goldman Sachs Expectations
The renowned financial institution revised its forecast to $4900 per ounce in 2026, based on continued strong inflows into gold ETFs and accelerated purchases by central banks worldwide.

J.P. Morgan Expectations
The company expects gold to reach approximately $5055 by mid-2026, with a Q4 2025 average of $3675.

Unified Range: Most analysts agree that gold will trade between $4800 and $5000 as a potential peak, with an annual average ranging from $4200 to $4800.

Eight Factors Driving Gold Forecasts Higher in 2026

1. Global demand for gold hits record highs

Total demand for gold, including investments, reached 1249 tons in Q2 2025, up 3% annually, with a value jump to $132 billion, a 45% increase. North America led demand with 345.7 tons, followed by Europe with 148.4 tons and Asia with 117.8 tons.

Gold ETFs (ETFs) experienced massive inflows, raising assets under management to $472 billion, with holdings reaching 3838 tons, up 6% from the previous period and close to the all-time peak of 3929 tons.

About 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time, maintaining their positions even during correction periods, reflecting long-term confidence in the metal.

2. Central banks accelerate accumulation

Central banks increased their reserves by 244 tons in Q1 2025, up 24% from the five-year previous quarterly average. Now, 44% of global central banks hold gold (compared to 37% in 2024), indicating a growing desire to diversify away from the US dollar.

China, Turkey, and India led the purchases, with the People’s Bank of China adding over 65 tons for the 22nd consecutive month, while Turkey’s reserves surpassed 600 tons. These purchases are expected to remain the main driver of demand through the end of 2026.

3. Limited supply and rising costs

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a 1% annual increase, unable to bridge the gap between rising demand and limited supply. Recycled gold decreased by 1%, as holders chose to keep it expecting further price increases.

Average global extraction costs rose to $1470 per ounce by mid-2025, the highest in a decade, constraining rapid expansion in production and deepening supply shortages.

4. Federal Reserve leads monetary policy trends

The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% in October 2025, with expectations of further cuts if labor markets weaken or growth slows. Markets are pricing in an additional 25 basis point cut at the December 2025 meeting.

Reports suggest the Fed may target an interest rate around 3.4% by the end of 2026 in the central scenario, leading to a decline in real bond yields and boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge.

5. Global monetary policies provide balanced support

Support is not limited to the Fed; most major central banks are adopting easing policies. The European Central Bank continues to address inflation, while the Bank of Japan maintains its easing stance, creating a global environment that protects gold as a safe haven.

6. Inflation and sovereign debt concerns

Global public debt has exceeded 100% of GDP, raising fears over the sustainability of fiscal policies. Investors turn to gold as protection against loss of purchasing power and as an alternative amid rising debt risks.

Bloomberg data shows that 42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025.

7. Geopolitical tensions boost defensive demand

Trade conflicts and regional tensions increased demand by about 7% annually. As concerns about the Taiwan Strait and energy supplies escalated, spot prices surged above $3400 in July, then exceeded $4300 in October.

8. Weak dollar and low yields boost demand

The dollar index declined about 7.64% from its 2025 peak until November 21, driven by expectations of rate cuts. US 10-year bond yields fell from 4.6% to approximately 4.07%, reducing opportunity costs for gold and enhancing its attractiveness.

Gold Forecasts in the Middle East

Egypt: Projections indicate gold could reach around 522,580 Egyptian pounds per ounce in 2026, an increase of about 158% over current prices, assuming exchange rates remain stable and global demand continues.

Saudi Arabia: Based on global forecasts of $5000 per ounce, the price could reach approximately 18,750 to 19,000 SAR.

UAE: Similarly, the price might approach 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

It’s important to remember these are approximate forecasts, dependent on assumptions such as exchange rate stability and ongoing global demand.

Will Gold Forecasts in 2026 Face Corrections?

Despite the overall positive outlook, HSBC warned of potential momentum loss in the second half of 2026 with a correction toward $4200 as profits are taken, but excluded a drop below $3800 unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs indicated that prices remaining above $4800 could test the “price credibility,” especially with weak industrial demand.

However, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts agree that gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward, thanks to strategic shifts among investors who now see it as a long-term asset rather than just a trading tool.

Technical Analysis: What Do Charts Say?

Gold closed on November 21, 2025, at $4065, after touching a high of $4381.44 on October 20, 2025.

It broke the ascending channel on the daily timeframe but maintains the main upward trendline around $4050. The $4000 support level is critical: breaking below could target $3800 (50% Fibonacci), while a break above $4200 opens the way toward $4400 and then $4680.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains steady at 50, indicating a neutral market without clear overbought or oversold signals. The MACD line stays above zero, confirming the overall bullish trend.

The technical outlook suggests gold will trade within a sideways upward-sloping range between $4000 and $4220 soon, with the broader picture remaining positive as long as it stays above the main trendline.

Summary: What Does All This Mean for Investors?

Gold forecasts for 2026 are based on strong data and structural factors. If real yields continue to decline and the dollar weakens, gold is poised to reach new record levels. Conversely, if market confidence returns and inflation subsides, it could enter a long-term stabilization phase.

In any case, gold’s role as a safe haven for investors appears resilient against growing economic and geopolitical risks.