The night before the Jackson Hole meeting, a single statement from Jerome Powell will determine the direction of Bitcoin and gold!

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole meeting at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on August 22 (10:00 PM Taiwan Time). This highly anticipated speech will become a key turning point for the market in the second half of the year. According to the latest data from CME FedWatch Tool, the market prices in an 81.2% probability of a 25 bps rate cut by the Fed in September, but whether this expectation will materialize depends entirely on Powell’s wording on that day.

Diverging Views from Institutions, Market Stuck in Deadlock

Regarding Powell’s upcoming remarks, Wall Street institutions show a clear divergence of opinions. Goldman Sachs adopts a relatively dovish stance, believing that inflationary pressures have eased and the Fed has room to cut rates; meanwhile, Barclays and JPMorgan Chase hold more hawkish views, worried that an early rate cut could reignite inflation. This disagreement is also reflected in market participants’ actual operations—investors are actively reducing their short USD positions while heavily buying USD call options as protective tools, preparing for potential volatility at Jackson Hole.

Bitcoin and Gold Face Critical Moments, Dual Scenarios Await

Currently, Bitcoin is priced at $87.60K, approaching its previous high. If Powell signals a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole and emphasizes inflation risks, it could pressure risk assets like US stocks and Bitcoin, potentially causing Bitcoin to break below $110,000. Gold, as a safe-haven asset, would also be adversely affected.

Conversely, if Powell adopts a more dovish tone and paves the way for a September rate cut, market expectations for easing will further heat up. US stocks, Bitcoin, and gold could all gain strong upward momentum, leading to a broad rally in risk assets.

Short-term Strategy Recommendations: Wait for Key Data Confirmation

After Jackson Hole, the market’s final direction still requires more data to support it. Investors should closely monitor the upcoming non-farm payrolls report on September 5 and the CPI data on September 11, as these two reports will directly influence the market’s final pricing on rate cuts. Until then, it is recommended to adopt flexible short-term trading strategies, avoid overly one-sided bets, and wait for clearer market signals before making larger position adjustments.