DOGE, whether the support line holds amid conflicting technical signals is the key.

Dogecoin(DOGE) is currently giving mixed signals around $0.13, reaching a critical crossroads. After a 3.57% decline last week, it rebounded by about 2% on Monday, but whether this recovery is just a technical rebound or a sign of a sustained upward trend remains unclear.

Divergent Signals in the Derivatives Market: Capital Inflows vs. Liquidation Volume

Looking into the derivatives market, the current situation of Dogecoin becomes even more apparent in its complexity.

Positive signals: According to CoinGlass data, open interest(OI) in the past 24 hours increased by 4.88%, reaching $1.49 billion. This indicates that retail investors are building positions again, supported by the rise in long positions from 45.83% on Sunday to 51.05% on Monday. The expectation that “it might bounce once in this range” is spreading among derivatives traders.

However, negative signals are stronger: During the same period, long position liquidations amounted to $3.33 million, overshadowing short liquidations of $799,590. This means that every time the price dips, stop-losses among buyers are triggered more broadly, indicating that short-term sellers still hold the advantage.

Institutional funds remain largely silent. According to Sosovalue data, Dogecoin ETFs recorded only a slight inflow of $171,920 last week, concentrated on Wednesday. The other trading days saw almost no movement of institutional funds, indicating a “wait-and-see mode” as investors observe the situation.

Technical Indicators Warning: MACD Approaching Bearish Cross

Momentum indicators clearly suggest downside risks.

The daily RSI hovers around the 40 level, oscillating between the neutral 50 and oversold boundaries, maintaining a bearish stance. More notably, the MACD is approaching the signal line, increasing the likelihood of a bearish crossover(cross). If confirmed, this could be interpreted as a technical warning of a “new downward wave.”

The movement of these indicators shows that DOGE’s current situation is far from stable. It is a typical mixed state where optimism about a rebound coexists with bearish signals indicating potential decline.

Price Range Analysis: Three Scenarios

Dogecoin has been trading within a range between the low of $0.13321 on November 21 and the high of $0.15681 on November 26.

Bullish Scenario: If the current support at $0.13321 holds, the first target is the upper boundary of the range at $0.15681. Breaking through this level, the R1 pivot point at $0.17882 could act as the next resistance. A simultaneous breakout of the range and the pivot could set the stage for a short-term rally.

Bearish Scenario: If the support at $0.13321 is clearly broken downward, the April low of $0.12986 comes into focus. If that level also gives way, further decline toward the S1 pivot point at $0.12319 is possible, bringing the current range structure closer to collapse.

Ultimately, the future direction of Dogecoin(DOGE) depends on the level of $0.13321. The ongoing tug-of-war at this point is likely to serve as a “collision point” that clarifies the mixed technical signals.