December Market Key Asset Technical Analysis: Precious Metals, Forex, and Crypto Trends

Macroeconomic Background: Investment Opportunities Amid Global Bond Market Volatility

The current market faces a dual pressure of complex policy expectations and rising bond yields. Traders estimate an 87% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate cut at next week’s FOMC meeting, with markets also betting on two additional rate cuts this year, potentially bringing the final interest rate range to 3.00%-3.25%. However, a seemingly contradictory phenomenon has emerged—despite expectations of rate cuts, long-term government bond yields in major countries continue to rise.

The German 10-year government bond yield has risen to 2.81%, the US 10-year Treasury yield has broken through 4.14%, and the Japanese 10-year government bond yield has touched a recent high of 1.97%. This structural increase reflects investor concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike expectations, US government debt levels, and other factors, hinting at underlying market risks.

Gold: Pressure at $4200, Limited Rebound Space

During the trading session on December 8, gold rose slightly by 0.27%, reaching a high of $4219. Notably, gold has tested the $4200 level repeatedly over the past four trading days without a successful breakout. Technically, gold remains in a range-bound consolidation between $3890 and $4225. Considering the time window, there is a short-term possibility of retesting the Gann 2/1 line at $4050.

The daily chart shows gold in a long-term upward trend since February 2024, currently forming the fourth consolidation range. This suggests the overall bullish momentum remains intact, but there is a clear risk of a short-term pullback that warrants attention.

Technical Levels

• Support: 4130, 4050, 3930
• Resistance: 4220, 4300, 4381

Silver: New Highs Continually Reached, Short-term Volatility Intensifies

Silver increased by 0.23% on December 8, reaching a high of $58.72. Although the continuous new highs indicate the overall bullish trend remains healthy, the prolonged sideways consolidation reflects intensifying competition between bulls and bears. Investors should remain cautious of potential short-term corrections.

From a technical perspective, if silver can hold above the psychological level of $56.50, it may further challenge levels of $60.0 and even $63.50. Conversely, a break below $56.5 could lead to further declines toward $53.8 and possibly $51.0.

Technical Levels

• Support: 56.5, 53.5, 50.0
• Resistance: 60.0, 63.5, 68.0

USD/JPY: Long-term Trendline Tested, Downward Momentum Strengthened

USD/JPY rose slightly by 0.1% on December 8, reaching a high of 155.54, currently stabilizing around 155.0. The key point is that USD/JPY is testing the support of its long-term upward trendline, while the AO indicator signals increasing downside momentum, indicating a tendency for further decline.

If USD/JPY falls below the 155.0 level, it may continue to test lower levels at 152.0 and even 150.0. To reverse the downward trend and regain an upward trajectory, it needs to recover and stabilize above 156.0.

Technical Levels

• Support: 155.0, 152.0, 150.0
• Resistance: 157.0, 158.0, 160.0

Bitcoin: Holding Above 90,000, Buying Momentum Strengthening

Bitcoin increased by 1.8% on December 8, reaching a high of $92,296. It has now stabilized above the 90,000 level, in a moderate upward phase of the rebound cycle. From a technical perspective, the AO indicator shows bullish momentum accumulating, with minimal resistance on the upside.

Latest market data shows Bitcoin at $87.79K, with a 24-hour increase of +0.54%. If Bitcoin can stay above the 90,000 level, it may further rebound toward $95,000 and even $100,000. Conversely, to reverse the overall upward trend, it must first break below the support at $86,000.

Technical Levels

• Support: 90000, 86000, 75000
• Resistance: 95000, 100000, 106000