Gold Outlook Today: Will the Rise Continue or Are Correction Risks Looming?

Market Outlook: Axial Fluctuation Before Direction Setting

Gold is currently moving in a sensitive zone reflecting a clear state of market uncertainty. On the two-hour timeframe, the metal maintains its upward trend since early November, but the convergence of MACD indicators and the flat price movement around $4,182.5 suggests the market is taking a breath before the next leap.

The ascending trendline extending from late October forms a strong defensive barrier, providing dynamic support between $4,120 and $4,140. This support is complemented by horizontal levels at $4,138.242 and $4,116.496, creating a double support zone that cannot be easily broken without strong reversal signals.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is gradually retreating from overbought territory, now occupying the neutral zone between 40 and 60, indicating that the bullish momentum is losing some of its strength without signaling sharp selling pressure. This favors a short-term sideways trading scenario before an upcoming breakout.

Economic Data Obscures Clarity

A state of uncertainty dominates the metals markets amid intense anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s two-day decision. According to CME FedWatch, traders expect a 25 basis point rate cut to a range of 3.50%-3.75% with a 90% probability — a significant jump from 66% last November.

However, this superficial consensus masks real divisions within policymakers. US inflation remains above the 2% target, creating a dilemma for the Fed between supporting the labor market and controlling prices. If the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, gold could face a painful correction.

On the other hand, US consumer confidence in November declined according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, despite stable inflation expectations. This weakening confidence adds further support to safe havens like gold, especially as the survey showed inflation expectations rising to 10.1% — the highest since January 2014.

Global Price Performance: Limited Decline

Spot gold prices fell by 0.2% to $4,189.49 per ounce, while US February futures declined by 0.6% to $4,217.7. This decline follows a strong rally nearing record levels, with the price touching $4,223.25 in the latest updates.

December 2025 futures dropped to $4,202.70, down 0.4%, under pressure from rising US bond yields, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war influencing gold now.

Regional Price Map

In Saudi Arabia, the situation remains relatively stable with the 24-karat gold price around 520 SAR, and the ounce near 15,775.73 SAR, down slightly by 0.31%. Other weights recorded: 22-karat at 478 SAR, and 18-karat at 391 SAR.

In the UAE, the 24-karat gram price remained steady at 506.25 AED, while the 22-karat gram was around 468.75 AED, and 21-karat at 449.50 AED. The ounce decreased by 0.31% to approximately 15,435.95 AED.

In Egypt, prices stayed stable with the 24-karat gram at about 6,400 EGP, 21-karat at 5,600 EGP, and 18-karat at 4,800 EGP. The gold pound remained near 44,800 EGP amid quiet trading.

In Jordan, the 24-karat gram was around 95.600 JOD, 22-karat at 87.600 JOD, and the ounce near 2,972.500 JOD with limited movements. Kuwait saw a slight decline of 0.31%, with the gold ounce at 1,290.567 KWD, and the 24-karat gram around 41.44 KWD.

Divergence in Precious Metals Market

While silver declined by 0.5% to $57.98 after hitting a record high of $59.32 on Friday, analysts confirm that silver recently led the metals market in a rare move. Expectations suggest the price could surpass $60 and reach $70 before year-end due to strong demand.

Platinum slightly decreased by 0.1% to $1,644.31, while palladium rose by 0.2% to $1,460.75, reflecting a mixed movement characterizing the precious metals market currently.

Market Drivers

US stocks declined yesterday, with the S&P 500 down 0.35% at 6,846.51 points, Nasdaq down 0.14% at 23,545.90 points, and Dow Jones down 0.45% at 47,739.32 points. This decline occurred despite expectations of a rate cut, indicating increasing concern over persistent inflation pressures into 2026.

Rising yields on 10-year US Treasuries act as a headwind for gold, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. This rise suggests the market remains cautious about the Fed being less dovish than expected.

Geopolitical Risks Support Safe Havens

European leaders from France, Germany, and the UK expressed strong support for Ukrainian President Zelensky at the London summit, emphasizing a “decisive” moment for Ukraine. Meanwhile, US pressure on Kyiv to accept a peace agreement with Russia is complicating the European scene and increasing global uncertainty.

These tense atmospheres boost gold’s appeal as a key safe haven, especially amid concerns over the long-term stability of the Old Continent.

Analysts’ Outlook: Path to Higher

Morgan Stanley sees room for further gains in gold, driven by a potential decline in the US dollar, increased ETF purchases, and continued central bank buying. The convergence of these factors could create a strong bullish environment in the coming months.

ING Bank expects gradual downward pressure on the dollar until 2026, especially with the Fed leaning toward more easing, and most major central banks cutting rates consecutively.

Peter Grant, chief metals strategist at Zaner Metals, confirms that gold is supported by very strong fundamentals, and the approach to $5,000 per ounce in Q1 2026 is within the realm of possible scenarios.

Expected Scenarios

Bullish Scenario remains the most likely as long as gold stays above $4,170 and manages to break resistance at $4,205. In this case, the path could open toward $4,240 and $4,270, which is a critical zone for trend strength determination.

Bearish Scenario begins if the price breaks below $4,170 with two consecutive closes, potentially slipping toward the double support zone at (4,138.242 and 4,116.496), with a break below indicating a deeper reversal.

Gold forecasts today indicate ongoing tension between easing monetary policy support and rising yields pressure — a conflict likely to keep prices within a certain range until the Federal Reserve’s decision is announced.