Technical in-depth analysis: US Dollar Index, Gold, Crude Oil, and NASDAQ 100 trend analysis

Macroeconomic Background: Mixed Signals in Employment Data Release

Recently, subtle changes have appeared in the US labor market. Non-farm payrolls fell by 105,000 in October, then rebounded to 64,000 in November, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, hitting a nearly four-year high. This “mixed hot and cold” situation has cooled market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, and the conditions for another rate cut are evidently more stringent. The US dollar has thus been supported, rebounding from the 98.0 level to around 98.60 after stabilizing, and the entire market may enter a short-term adjustment phase.

NASDAQ 100 Index: Downward Pressure Remains, Rebound Momentum Worries

The NASDAQ 100 index is currently oscillating around 25,200 points. The most noteworthy is that the AO indicator has begun to show weakening signals, and downward momentum is brewing, making it unlikely for the rebound to sustain.

From a technical perspective, if the index faces resistance at 25,500 points during a rebound, it may test the 25,000 support level, and in extreme cases, it could test 24,000.

Support levels: 25,200, 24,900, 24,000
Resistance levels: 26,000, 26,300, 27,600

US Dollar Index: Key Support at 98.0 Holds, Short-term Volatility Expected

On December 16, the US dollar index briefly dipped to a low of 97.8, then rebounded, even rallying to 98.5 during the day. Notably, the dollar index found support at the Gann 2/1 line, indicating that both bulls and bears are still engaged in fierce battles, and short-term consolidation is inevitable.

If the dollar index falls below 98.0, downside risks will gradually increase, potentially testing the 95.2 level. Conversely, to reverse the downward trend, it must break above 99.3 to change the situation.

Support levels: 98.0, 96.5, 95.2
Resistance levels: 98.5, 99.3, 100.0

Gold: Repeated Resistance, Range-bound Consolidation Likely

On December 17, gold rose by 0.36% intraday, reaching a high of $4,342, but still failed to break through effectively. Recently, gold has repeatedly attempted to surpass $4,350 but has been unsuccessful, indicating a strong resistance zone above. Although the overall upward trend remains intact, a subsequent pullback to the $4,220–$4,300 range cannot be ruled out.

If it breaks through $4,381, further rebound attempts could challenge $4,438 or even $4,570. To solidify the rally, it must first hold above the $4,200 support level.

Support levels: 4,300, 4,220, 4,130
Resistance levels: 4,381, 4,438, 4,570

WTI Crude Oil: Clear Correction Needs, 57.0 is a Short-term Key Level

On December 17, WTI crude oil rose by 1.16% intraday, reaching a high of $56.09. It is important to note that oil has declined for four consecutive days, hitting a four-year low, indicating a significant short-term technical rebound demand.

The $57.0 level acts as a strong resistance. If the rebound is blocked here, the downward trend may continue, testing $55.0 or even $52.0. To reverse the medium-term decline, a break above $59.0 is necessary.

Support levels: 55.0, 52.5, 51.0
Resistance levels: 57.0, 59.0, 61.5