End-of-2025 USD/JPY outlook! TWD to JPY is 4.85, is it a good time to exchange now?

This year, the Japanese Yen has appreciated by 8.7%, but don’t rush to exchange all at once.

As of December 2025, the TWD/JPY exchange rate has reached 4.85, up from 4.46 at the beginning of the year. This surge benefits those holding Japanese Yen. But this doesn’t mean it’s the best time to exchange everything now; instead, you should consider your purpose and the method of currency exchange.

Why is the Yen worth paying attention to at year-end?

Recently, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been very active. Governor Ueda Kazuo’s hawkish comments have pushed up rate hike expectations to 80%, with a forecast of an increase to 0.75% by mid-December (a 30-year high), and Japanese government bond yields have climbed to 1.93%. Meanwhile, the US has entered a rate cut cycle, making the Yen one of the three major safe-haven currencies, turning it into a capital refuge.

What does this mean for Taiwanese investors? Gradual currency exchange isn’t just for travel funds; it can also hedge against Taiwan stock market volatility. USD/JPY has fallen from a high of 160 points at the start of the year to 154.58. Although there are short-term fluctuations, the medium to long-term forecast suggests it will stay below 150—meaning, now might be a good window to exchange Yen.

Four ways to exchange currency, who saves the most money?

There are four methods to exchange Yen, with significant cost differences. For example, with NT$50,000:

1. In-person cash exchange: Loss of NT$1,500-2,000
Go directly to a bank or airport to exchange cash. It sounds straightforward but is actually the most costly—banks use the “cash selling rate” (1-2% worse than the market rate), plus possible service fees. Taiwan Bank’s cash selling rate is about 0.2060 (NT$/JPY), meaning NT$50,000 only gets about 48,500 Yen. Suitable only for small pocket money needs; avoid for larger amounts.

2. Online currency exchange + ATM withdrawal: Loss of NT$800-1,200
Use bank apps to exchange at home, then withdraw cash at 24-hour foreign currency ATMs. E.SUN or Yuanta offer this service, with daily limits starting at NT$150,000 and cross-bank fees as low as NT$5. Although there are still exchange rate costs at withdrawal, overall it’s cheaper than in-person exchange. Ideal for busy professionals who need flexibility. Note: There are only about 200 foreign currency ATMs nationwide, and cash may run out during peak times.

3. Online currency exchange + airport pickup: Loss of NT$300-800 (most recommended)
Use Taiwan Bank or Mega International’s online exchange system to pre-arrange pickup at airport branches, often with no handling fee or just NT$10 (using Taiwan Pay is cheaper), with about 0.5% better rates. Taoyuan Airport has 14 Taiwan Bank counters and 2 24-hour branches. If you plan to travel, this is the most cost-effective method.

4. Bank online exchange + fixed deposit: Loss of NT$500-1,000 (long-term holding)
Exchange via app and deposit into a foreign currency account, then transfer to Yen fixed deposits or ETFs. E.SUN Bank offers Yen fixed deposits with an annual interest rate of 1.5-1.8%, effectively earning interest passively. Suitable for investors not in urgent need of cash and looking to grow assets through fixed deposits.

The best way to exchange Yen now

Budget NT$50,000-200,000? Mix “online exchange + airport pickup” with “foreign currency ATM.” The former is suitable for booking within a week before travel; the latter is good for spontaneous decisions.

Budget NT$200,000 and above? Consider staggered entry. Although Yen is strong, arbitrage trades closing or geopolitical conflicts could cause 2-5% fluctuations. Don’t go all-in at once; split into 3-4 batches for a more stable average cost.

Planning long-term investment? Combine Yen fixed deposits or ETFs. After exchanging Yen, don’t let the money sit idle without earning interest. E.SUN Bank offers deposits starting from 10,000 Yen at 1.6% annual interest; or buy Yuanta 00675U (Yen ETF) with a 0.4% management fee, which can be purchased as fractional shares via brokerage apps for easier dollar-cost averaging.

Quick reference table for bank exchange rates and fees

(Updated as of 2025/12/10)

After exchanging Yen, what next?

Don’t leave the money idle. If just for travel, spend freely; if you want to leverage Yen for investment:

• Yen fixed deposits: Most stable, with 1.5-1.8% annual interest
• Yen ETFs (like 00675U): Suitable for dollar-cost averaging, capturing Yen appreciation
• Forex trading USD/JPY: For advanced traders, zero commission, 24-hour trading, suitable for swing trading

Summary

Exchanging Yen now is indeed advantageous—TWD/JPY has appreciated 8.7%, BOJ rate hikes are imminent, and Yen’s safe-haven role is prominent. But don’t exchange everything at once; choose the right method, stagger your entries, and after exchanging, allocate investments. This way, you can turn the pressure of TWD depreciation into asset-building opportunities.

Year-end is a prime window for currency exchange. Online airport exchanges are quick to master; if you miss that, foreign currency ATMs are always available. Spending an extra 5 minutes on an app instead of queuing at the bank to save NT$2,000 is a smarter way to exchange currency.