Leading Group Opens a New Era of Crypto ETF Trading as Bear Market Reversal Signals Emerge

The attitude shift among mainstream asset management institutions is rewriting the landscape of the crypto market. Vanguard Group, the world’s second-largest asset management firm, recently announced the opening of trading rights for spot ETFs and crypto-related mutual funds to its clients, marking a reorientation of institutional capital towards digital asset allocation.

Simultaneously, Bank of America (BofA) has officially recommended that its wealth management clients allocate 1%–4% of their portfolios to crypto assets for the first time. Approximately 15,000 wealth advisors across Merrill, Private Bank, and Merrill Edge platforms will begin providing research support for four Bitcoin ETFs, including BITB, FBTC, Grayscale Mini Trust, and IBIT, starting January 5, 2026. This signifies a shift from the previous passive compliance restrictions to an active recommendation model for crypto asset allocation among institutional wealth advisors.

Market Reaction and Liquidation Patterns

The signals of institutional entry are quickly reflected in price movements. As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $87.71K, with a 24-hour change of +0.27%; Ethereum is at $2.95K, down -0.63% over the same period. After the policy announcements from Vanguard and BofA, the market experienced a stronger reaction, with Bitcoin soaring to a high of $92,328 and Ethereum reaching $3,034.8.

Behind the market volatility is a significant adjustment in leverage positions. Data from Coinglass shows that in the past 24 hours, the crypto market experienced total liquidations of $376 million, with $310 million in shorts and $65.66 million in longs. This reflects investors’ active bets on institutional allocation expectations.

The Fundamental Logic of the Bear Market and the Foundation for Recovery

Tracing back to the downtrend in early October, Bitcoin experienced an intraday drop of nearly 10% on October 10, ultimately closing down 7.15%. That day marked the largest liquidation wave in crypto history, with leverage liquidations exceeding $19 billion. Subsequent liquidations on October 30 and November 3 each exceeded $1 billion. The downtrend continued until November 21, when Bitcoin bottomed at $80,537, a 36% decline from its peak.

The downward pressure was driven by multiple factors: the volatility spike caused by repeated new highs prompting long-term holders to take profits; and the exit of speculative capital (via leveraged contracts, borrowing, and liquidity mining) fueling the rise, which triggered high-leverage long liquidations, ultimately evolving into a chain reaction of forced selling.

However, the key turning point lies in the structural significance of mainstream institutions like Vanguard Group’s involvement. Since these institutions control pension funds, retirement portfolios, and long-term capital allocations, their entry into any asset class will alter the market’s capital structure, shifting from speculation-driven to allocation-driven dynamics.

Macro Environment and Bottom-Building Path

The market probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 89.2%. Meanwhile, in the new US policy environment, expectations are rising that Kevin Hassett, the director of the National Economic Council, may succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, implying further easing of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is expected to find support around the $80,000 level and gradually build a mid-term bottom through a time-for-space approach.

Technical Outlook: $92,000 is a Key Resistance

From the daily chart, Bitcoin has rebounded after finding support around $86,000, with the AO indicator continuously showing accumulation of bullish momentum. If Bitcoin can stabilize above $80,000 to form a medium-term support, it may further build a solid bottom through time.

Above, $92,000 is a critical resistance level. Once effectively broken, Bitcoin could challenge $94,000 and even approach the $100,000 mark. The signals from Vanguard Group and Bank of America provide fundamental support for this upward movement.