Japan Spends $1 Trillion on U.S. Investments: Can It Avoid Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs"?

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe recently held talks with Trump, bringing an impressive investment pledge — Japan will directly invest up to $1 trillion in the U.S. This figure represents what? According to statistics, as of 2023, Japan's direct investment balance in the U.S. is about $800 billion, ranking first globally for five consecutive years. In other words, Abe promised an additional $200 billion.

During the talks, Trump expressed approval and even praised Japan's investment scale, surpassing other countries. SoftBank plans to invest billions of dollars in AI infrastructure in the U.S., and manufacturing giants like Toyota and Isuzu are expanding their U.S. plants. These large-scale investments indeed inject vitality into the U.S. economy.

**Can Investment Become a "Talisman"?**

After the meeting, Abe optimistically stated that Japan might be exempt from Trump's tariff policies. But reality struck quickly — on the same day, Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported steel and aluminum, regardless of country. Subsequently, Trump proposed to activate a "reciprocal tariff" system, where the U.S. would impose tariffs on trade partners' products in response.

What does this mean for Japan? Professor Kazuhiko Maejima of Sophia University pointed out that the summit is just surface-level diplomacy; the real test lies ahead. Measures like increasing LNG imports and jointly developing Alaska's natural gas resources may or may not truly dispel America's obsession with tariffs — remains to be seen.

**The Cost of Investment Commitments**

Wataru Tsutsumi, researcher at the Sasagawa Peace Foundation, holds a more cautious view. He believes Abe's increased investment pledge is indeed aimed at pleasing the U.S., but this is only a short-term tactic. The figure of "$1 trillion" might temporarily delay tariffs but cannot eradicate Trump's obsession with trade protectionism.

Analysts generally believe that Japan's future situation will be one of being forced to continually prove its value to the U.S. economy. No matter how much investment is promised, as long as Trump perceives some industry as harming American interests, tariffs could strike at any moment. The yen has already depreciated in response to these policy shifts, reflecting market concerns about the situation.

Ultimately, the depth of Japan's reliance on the U.S. determines how constrained it is. This $1 trillion investment pledge is less a bargaining chip and more a forced choice Japan has made.