Gold at $4,185: "The important thing is not the rise but the defense"…Order block indicator and big data after shutdown

Gold(XAU/USD) spot is trading around $4,185 per ounce in early Asia. While expectations for interest rate cuts remain due to the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown in history, the market is also focusing on “stability and defense” rather than “sharp rises,” reflecting the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance.

Indicators Coming After the Shutdown, Holding the Power to the Fed’s Decisions

On Thursday, President Trump signed the funding bill to reopen the government, officially ending the shutdown. However, from the market’s perspective, the real start is now. This is because a flood of economic indicators that had not been released — October employment data, growth rates, consumption statistics — are expected to be released all at once.

The key is that the direction of the dollar and gold will be determined by the strength or weakness of these numbers. Weak indicators could lead to a weaker dollar → increased expectations for rate cuts → intensified gold buying, reviving an old pattern. White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett announced plans to release October employment data, but since household surveys are not conducted in that month, official unemployment figures are expected to be missing. This means we will have to gauge the economy with “incomplete employment data.”

The Fed’s Position: “No Need to Cut Immediately”

Recent comments from Fed officials have lowered market expectations. Boston Fed President Susan Collins mentioned that maintaining the current policy rate could be appropriate, and Presidents from the Atlanta and Cleveland Fed also expressed a preference for holding the rate steady. All three seem to lack full confidence that inflation has returned to the target level.

Reflecting this, the probability of a 25bp cut at the December FOMC meeting plummeted from 62.9% the previous day to 51%. According to CME FedWatch, the nearly certain rate cut scenario has cooled to just slightly over a 50/50 chance. For gold investors, this means the Fed is “not pressing the brake, but also not stepping on the accelerator.”

The Significance of the $4,150 Level as Seen Through Supply Zone Indicators

Currently, gold trading at $4,185 carries more than just numerical significance. Breaking through $4,150 cleanly and stabilizing above it suggests that the price has absorbed recent major supply zones and moved up to a higher level.

This is the point that short-term traders are watching. It’s more important whether gold “can hold the $4,150 line” than how quickly it rises. As long as this level holds, weak data releases are more likely to reinforce the familiar “bad news = good news for gold” pattern.

Short-term Scenarios: “Staircase Rise” vs “Defense Test” Amid Data Waiting

Bullish Scenario: If the first major data releases — employment and growth indicators — come in weaker than expected, the market may reinterpret $4,150 as a support level and explore new highs above $4,200. In this case, the rise in gold would not be a “rapid surge,” but a pattern of moving upward while confirming data.

Downside Risk: If the indicators come out more resilient than expected, expectations for rate cuts could diminish further. However, considering the current Fed tone of “maintaining” rather than “resuming hikes,” the likely scenario is testing $4,150 → checking whether support holds. There is limited incentive for a deep slide below this level.

Points Investors Should Watch Now

Simplifying the current situation:

• Shutdown is over → indicators will be released again
• The Fed is not in a hurry → rate cut expectations have not completely disappeared
• The $4,150 supply zone acts as a support level

Therefore, for short-term traders, the key is not how fast gold rises but whether the main support level holds. As long as this level continues to hold, the first major economic indicators next week that show weak results could lead to renewed buying interest in gold.