As the weekly options settlement date approaches, how are the two Crypto giants responding? Bitcoin stays steady at $90,000, Ethereum remains firm at the $3,000 level

Market Overview

Thursday (November 27) the US markets are closed for Thanksgiving, and global investor sentiment remains relatively calm. Amid macro uncertainties, crypto assets have performed relatively well—Bitcoin is currently at $91,291, up 0.91% over the past 24 hours, while Ethereum is at $3,014, down 0.39% over the same period. As the weekly options expiry date approaches, the market is closely watching the technical performance of these two major cryptocurrencies.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin is at $87.68K, Ethereum at $2.95K, with the overall trend relatively stable. Compared to the previous day, both assets are oscillating near key integer levels, coinciding with a sensitive period just before the weekly options settlement.

Fed December Rate Cut Expectations Rise, Benefiting Crypto Assets

CME FedWatch shows an 86.9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December, with a 13.1% chance of holding rates steady. This strong rate cut expectation supports the upward momentum of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which remain resilient.

Morgan Stanley strategists note that as the US economy slows, the Fed may further cut rates, which could sustain the rally in emerging markets and risk assets. The firm recommends maintaining long positions in emerging market local currency bonds, with expected returns of around 8% by mid-2026. Against this backdrop, crypto assets led by Bitcoin are also expected to benefit from improved liquidity conditions.

OPEC+ Meeting Approaching, Commodities Face Adjustment

Market focus is on the OPEC+ meeting, with sources indicating that members may maintain the decision to pause production increases until early 2026 during this weekend’s talks. Reuters reports that eight members have gradually increased output this year, with an estimated total of about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December.

It is reported that OPEC+ ministers do not plan to adjust the overall production target for next year, which includes a collective cut of 2 million barrels per day by most members before the end of next year. This decision is expected to support the oil market, with WTI crude rising for two consecutive days to $58.97 per barrel, up 0.72%. Meanwhile, gold remains strong, up 0.78% to $4,157 per ounce. The stable performance of commodities reflects investor confidence in risk assets.

Japan’s Large-Scale Stimulus Boosts Rate Hike Expectations

The Japanese government plans to issue a large amount of government bonds to fund a new round of economic stimulus. NHK reports that Japan will issue about 11.7 trillion yen (approximately 529.9 billion RMB) in government bonds to cover the expenditure gap caused by last week’s large-scale economic measures.

This decision has caused significant fluctuations in the swap market, with the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan in December jumping from about 21% a week ago to over 50%. Goldman Sachs analysts warn that this large fiscal stimulus may have a much lower-than-expected economic impact. US banks also warn that Japan’s stimulus scale this year is much larger than last year, posing a significant risk of further fiscal deficits by 2026. The IMF also forecasts that Japan’s fiscal deficit will worsen further in 2026.

ECB Signals Rate Hike Still Possible

ECB Governing Council member Kazaks warns that it is premature to discuss rate cuts, as core inflation in the Eurozone remains well above 2%, and inflation outlook faces risks on both sides. This statement dampens market expectations of imminent rate cuts and adds uncertainty to the ECB’s future rate path.

Kazaks emphasizes that the inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 in the December ECB meeting are key, as monetary policy transmission takes time. According to the ECB’s September projections, inflation is expected to be 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027, both near or below the 2% target. Updated data from the next meeting will be crucial in assessing the central bank’s subsequent actions.

European Stocks Slightly Higher, Crypto Assets Remain Resilient

In the context of the US markets being closed, European stocks rose across the board. Germany’s DAX 30 increased by 0.18%, France’s CAC 40 by 0.04%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 by 0.02%. The US dollar index declined slightly by 0.03% to 99.56, USD/JPY fell by 0.11%, and EUR/USD remained flat.

In this environment, the crypto market shows divergence. Bitcoin stays above the $90,000 level, while Ethereum is consolidating around $3,000. As the weekly options expiry approaches, market volatility may further increase, and investors should closely monitor these two major cryptocurrencies’ support levels.

Ukraine Situation Remains Static, Geopolitical Risks Persist

The situation in Ukraine has not shown significant progress. Russian President Putin stated that negotiations with Ukraine’s current leadership are currently meaningless. Putin pointed out that fighting will only stop if Ukrainian forces withdraw from occupied territories; otherwise, Russia will use force to compel their withdrawal.

Ukrainian President Zelensky said that Ukraine and US delegations will meet this week to continue advancing the agreements reached at the Geneva conference, aiming to find concrete forms of peace and security guarantees. The ongoing geopolitical risks may support the defensive demand for gold and energy assets.

Today’s Key Economic Events Schedule

• Japan October Unemployment Rate
• France November CPI Preliminary Month-over-Month
• France Q3 GDP Year-over-Year Final
• Switzerland November KOF Leading Indicator
• Germany November Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment
• Germany November CPI Preliminary Month-over-Month
• Canada September GDP Month-over-Month