SUI( The essence of the SUI) bearish trend: technical breakdown and simultaneous deterioration of on-chain metrics

SUI( continues its daily decline around the $1.42 level, causing a rapid cooling of market sentiment. The current asset with a circulating market cap of $5.29B faces not just a simple short-term correction, but a triple adverse situation involving technical pattern breakdown + exchange position unwinding + slowdown in blockchain activity happening simultaneously.

Derivative Market Signals: Position Unwinding Indicators Become Visible

Warning signals are appearing sequentially in the SUI futures market.

First, the open interest (OI) metric has decreased by about 10% over 24 hours, shrinking to $679.70 million. A decline in OI indicates traders are intentionally reducing leverage exposure, which suggests that market participants’ risk appetite is rapidly diminishing.

The liquidation data is even more telling. During the same period, long liquidations amounted to $3.14 million, while short liquidations were only $89,210, showing a gap of over three times. This implies that positions betting on an upward move have been heavily liquidated, and with the long/short ratio dropping to 0.9238, it confirms that the market trend is clearly leaning bearish.

On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate: Demand Clearly Weakening

On-chain activity indicators are also sending negative signals.

The total value locked (TVL) in the SUI network has decreased by -3.30% over 24 hours, falling to $869.08 million. A decline in TVL reflects users withdrawing capital from DeFi protocols, indicating an intensification of on-chain activity stagnation.

A more serious signal is that the market cap of stablecoins has plummeted by -25.72% over a week. Since stablecoins underpin on-chain transactions and liquidity provision, this sharp decrease suggests that network users are reducing their positions and pulling back liquidity.

Technical Structure: Vicious Cycle After $1.50 Break

From a chart analysis perspective, SUI no longer maintains a trading structure capable of defending its levels.

On the 4-hour chart, the Descending Triangle pattern has confirmed a bearish breakout, and the critical support at $1.50 has been broken and remains unrecovered. Currently, it is trading below the S1 pivot of $1.47, indicating that the market’s least resistance path is clearly downward.

Momentum indicators are reinforcing the bearish bias. The 4-hour RSI has fallen into the 28 oversold zone, and when RSI stays below 30, it increases the likelihood of a prolonged downtrend. The MACD is also diverging in the negative territory, with increasing downside momentum.

Next Key Support Levels and Reversal Scenarios

The technically important level to watch is the S2 pivot at $1.3924. A first defensive line may form at this level, but in a phase where selling momentum remains strong, support can turn into a “breakthrough point” rather than a true support.

A bullish reversal scenario is not entirely ruled out. If SUI recovers above $1.50, the $1.57 level, where the 50-period EMA resides, could serve as the first resistance. However, at this moment, the key event is whether the price can reclaim $1.50, making that the primary focus.

Conclusion: SUI faces short-term additional correction risks as a result of the confluence of technical breakdown, exchange position unwinding, and on-chain activity slowdown.