#BTC行情分析 Will the $24 billion worth of BTC options expire and lead to a rally?

On Christmas Eve, Bitcoin left traders feeling frustrated as its range-bound price movement contrasted sharply with the record highs set by gold and silver.
Highlights:
* Bitcoin is in a “waiting game” state, with bidders still focused on precious metals. *
Analysts say that a massive options expiry event should lay the groundwork for a Bitcoin price increase.
* The gold coil reached $4,500 for the first time in history.
Bitcoin targets $100,000 after expiry
Data from TradingView shows that as the Christmas holiday approaches, BTC/USD remains around $87,000. These tokens are believed to bring their own volatility—especially after the record-breaking options expiry event coming on Friday. “Historically, Bitcoin tends to fluctuate by 5% to 7% during Christmas, a pattern often related to year-end options expiries rather than new fundamental catalysts,”
commented trading firm QCP Capital in its latest US market update. “This week’s record expiry is no exception. About 300,000 BTC options contracts, worth approximately $23.7 billion, and 446,000 IBIT options contracts are expected to expire.”
QCP pointed out that more than half of the open interest on major exchanges like Deribit is set to expire, with the “maximum pain” level at $95,000. “After Friday’s options expiry, the downside positions should become clearer, especially whether the large December 85,000 put options are rolled forward, closed, or replaced further,” the report added.
The expiry date has already attracted market participants’ attention. Earlier this month, executive David Eng described the event as “putting a lid on Bitcoin’s upside potential.” “Before expiry, Bitcoin looks weak and boring. After expiry, the structure will change,” he told X followers, with an initial target of $100,000. “This is textbook setup: volatility is designed to be suppressed and then released by the calendar.” Bitcoin plays the “waiting game” while stocks rally and gold rises in a shorter timeframe, with patience running out. “Bitcoin has been stuck between $85,000 and $90,000 for weeks,” said crypto trader, analyst, and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe on Tuesday.
Van de Poppe believes stocks need to first find local highs before capital can flow back into cryptocurrencies—an idea that also applies to precious metals. According to Cointelegraph, gold and silver prices have continued to rise this week, with XAU/USD reaching $4,500 per ounce for the first time. Market commentator Garett responded to Cointelegraph’s report on X: “The upside potential for silver, palladium, and platinum is short-lived and unsustainable.” “Once reversal begins, gold prices are also likely to be pulled down. Capital will rotate from precious metals into BTC and ETH.”