Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations change: Are there still 3 opportunities in 2026?

【BlockBeats】On December 25th, an interesting data point was released—faster-than-expected economic growth has brought about changes, and CME’s observation data shows that the probability of a rate cut in January 2026 has significantly converged.

After this data was published, the leading candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, Haskett, directly made a statement. He believes that the foundation for growth still comes from three factors: falling prices, income growth, and improved market sentiment. He also did some calculations: if GDP growth maintains around 4%, new employment is expected to return to a range of 100,000 to 150,000 jobs per month. But he was also straightforward—he stated that the Federal Reserve is clearly lagging behind the trend on rate cuts.

However, there is a key detail. The economic growth in the third quarter was mainly due to a rebound caused by the depletion of inventory backlog and trade disruptions, which actually masks the broader trend of weakening employment margins. With employment becoming a core policy consideration and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair gradually finalized, the market generally expects about three rate cuts still to be possible in 2026.