#ETHTrendWatch

The price of Ethereum is influenced by two opposing factors: protocol upgrades and market changes.

The implementation of the (positive) roadmap – upcoming Fusaka and Hegota updates aimed at improving scalability and staking economics.
Regulatory challenges (negative) – outflows from the ETF (-555 million dollars per week) are related to delays in the adoption of the Clarity Act and policy uncertainty.
Accumulation by large holders (positive) – the number of addresses with more than 10,000 ETH has increased by 9.3% since October 2024 (Lookonchain).

Detailed Analysis

1. Protocol updates and roadmap (positive impact)

Overview:
The Fusaka upgrade, scheduled for December 3, 2025, will double Ethereum’s data storage capacity (blob capacity) using PeerDAS technology. This could reduce second-layer fees by approximately 95% (CryptoGucci). In the long term, the Hegota upgrade will utilize Verkle Trees — a new data structure that simplifies state management. This is important for stateless clients (stateless clients) and for the resilience of solo staking.

What does this mean:
Improved scalability could revive developer activity, which has decreased by 14% in the last quarter according to Electric Capital, and attract institutional users to DeFi. However, delays in implementing EOF could prolong existing EVM efficiency issues.

2. Regulatory pressure and ETF dynamics (mixed impact)

Overview:
In the US, $555 million was withdrawn from spot ETH ETFs last week due to delays in passing the Clarity Act, while in the EU, under the MiCA regulation, Ethereum is exempt from strict issuer rules (Bitcoinist). The key remains the SEC’s decision on classifying Ethereum as a security, expected in July 2025.

What does this mean:
Short-term outflows of funds (-35% of ETF assets since September) may hinder price growth, but resolving regulatory uncertainty could attract over $5 billion in institutional investments currently on hold.

3. Large holder behavior and derivatives (positive sentiment)

Overview:
Whales increased their holdings by 790,000 ETH (about $2.89 billion) from July 2025 at an average price of around $3,510. Meanwhile, open interest in futures has decreased by 50% since August’s peak, reducing the risk of sharp fluctuations (CoinMarketCap).

What does this mean:
Strategic accumulation by large holders (14.2 million ETH across 1,000–10,000 wallets) indicates confidence in supporting the price above $3,000. However, low open interest ($24.5 billion compared to $50 billion in July) may limit volatility.

Conclusion

Ethereum’s price depends on the successful execution of the technical roadmap amid regulatory uncertainty, while accumulation by large holders creates a positive background. The Q1 2026 updates could act as a growth catalyst toward the $3,576 level (Fibonacci level 38.2%). However, ongoing outflows from ETFs and competition from other blockchains (for example, $62.9 million inflow into Solana) create risks of decline. Will the Hegota update with Verkle Trees stabilize staking decentralization before the share of liquid staking exceeds 60%?