U.S. Treasury yield curve steepens, increasing the risk of a tech stocks pullback

Last week, changes in U.S. policy expectations triggered market volatility. President Trump expressed his inclination toward the Federal Reserve Chair candidate to the media and suggested a rate cut, immediately sparking concerns about the independence of the central bank. As a result, Asia-Pacific stocks generally came under pressure on Monday, with the Nikkei 225, Taiwan Weighted, KOSPI, and Hang Seng Index all falling more than 1%.

Leading tech stocks in the U.S. market led the decline, with chip giant Broadcom dropping 11.4% in a single day, cloud computing platform Oracle falling 4.5%, and the company's credit risk indicator reaching a 16-year high. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged over 5%, and the Nasdaq 100 experienced its largest single-day decline in three weeks.

The U.S. Treasury yield structure shows a clear divergence. According to the latest data, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 3.52%, while the 10-year yield rose to 4.18%, and the 30-year yield increased to 4.84%, hitting a nearly four-month high. This long-term and short-term divergence reflects conflicting market expectations about the U.S. employment and inflation outlook—concerns about economic slowdown coexist with vigilance over persistent inflation.

Rising long-term yields directly pressure U.S. stock valuations. Currently, the market faces two main concerns: first, the gap between large-scale capital investments and actual profitability in the AI industry chain; second, the overall U.S. stocks are in a fragile state of high valuation combined with high volatility. Even relatively stable companies like Broadcom have seen significant declines, indicating a clear cooling of risk sentiment.

The key short-term focus is on the November non-farm payroll report released on Tuesday. The market expects October employment growth to be revised downward by 10,000 jobs, with a rebound to 130,000 jobs in November, but analysts point out that the latter is more due to seasonal adjustments, and the true improvement in labor demand is uncertain. If the data underperform expectations, it will intensify pessimism about U.S. earnings prospects.

From a technical perspective, the Nasdaq 100 recently failed to break through the 26,000 resistance level and is inclined toward a correction in the short term. If it further breaks below the 25,000 psychological level, it will test the support zone around 24,000. Currently, U.S. stocks face dual pressures from a policy vacuum period and rising U.S. Treasury indices, and short-term correction risks should not be underestimated.