Pre-Labor Day Golden Week Multi-Asset Trend Analysis: Gold, Crude Oil, USD/JPY, and Bitcoin Focus Points

Thursday (November 27) US stocks are closed for Thanksgiving, and global markets experience light trading. As rate cut expectations continue to dominate market sentiment, CME FedWatch indicates an 86.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, while the 10-year US Treasury yield remains firmly above 4%, posing a challenge for asset allocation decisions. Against this backdrop, the US dollar’s movement appears volatile, with downward pressure gradually becoming the mainstream expectation.

Gold Approaches the 4200 Level, Focus on Power Consolidation During May Day Golden Week

Gold prices continued their upward trend on Friday, rising 0.57% for the day, reaching a high of $4,193, close to the psychological level of $4,200. Market observations suggest that gold is consolidating within the $3,890-$4,225 range, with signs of continued digestion of short positions becoming more evident, and bullish momentum building.

From a technical perspective, if gold successfully breaks through $4,220, the subsequent rebound targets could be set at $4,300 or even higher at $4,381. To end the rally, a drop below support at $4,040 is needed.

Key Price Levels:

• Support: 4130, 4040, 3930
• Resistance: 4220, 4300, 4381

Crude Oil Stabilizes at $58.0, Rebound Potential Opens

WTI crude oil rose 0.91% today, reaching a high of $59.17. Notably, oil prices have remained above $58.0 for an extended period, easing bearish pressure and suggesting that market pessimism is easing.

Considering the relatively complete trend since late June, the possibility of a technical breakthrough above $62.0 is increasing. If support at $58.0 fails, caution is needed for further downside extension.

Technical Levels:

• Support: 58.0, 55.0, 50.0
• Resistance: 60.0, 62.0, 65.0

USD/JPY Faces Cooling, Downside Risks Gradually Emerge

USD/JPY fluctuated around 156.30 on Friday, with technical indicators showing divergence. The AO momentum indicator suggests increasing downside strength, and the inability to re-establish above 157.0 signals early warning signs of a downtrend.

If resistance at 157.0 holds, further testing of 155.0 or even 152.0 is possible. Given the time window around November 27, risk of a trend reversal should be monitored in advance.

Trading Levels:

• Support: 155.0, 152.0, 150.0
• Resistance: 157.0, 158.0, 160.0

Bitcoin Remains Above 90,000, Rebound Momentum to Be Confirmed

Bitcoin is steadily consolidating above $91,000, with four out of the past five trading days showing gains. The AO indicator reflects increased buying sentiment, with upward movement being the least resistance path. Current data shows BTC trading around $87.61K.

If Bitcoin continues to hold above the $90,000 level, subsequent rebounds could target $95,000 or even $100,000. To reverse the upward trend, a first step would be to break below support at $86,000.

Technical Levels:

• Support: 90000, 86000, 75000
• Resistance: 95000, 100000, 106000

Summary: Currently, risk assets such as gold and oil are showing strength amid expectations of a weakening dollar, while the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional assets is strengthening. Ahead of the May Day Golden Week holiday, investors should closely monitor technical breakout points across multiple assets.