Chinese policies strongly promote the internationalization of the Renminbi: the USD/RMB exchange rate hits a new annual low, and is expected to rise to 6.85 by 2026.

Under a series of prudent policy supports, the RMB to USD exchange rate has recently shown a strong upward trend. As of November 26, the onshore USD to RMB exchange rate fell to 7.0824, and the offshore USD to RMB fell to 7.0779, both hitting the lowest levels in over a year. This shift reflects not only the rebalancing of global monetary policies but also China’s firm commitment to promoting the internationalization of the RMB.

Policy Guidance + Market Participation, RMB Exchange Rate Steadily Climbing

The main drivers behind the current appreciation of the RMB come from two aspects. First, the Federal Reserve’s continued rate cuts and the easing signals have created a favorable external environment for RMB appreciation. Second, domestic policy measures are actively guiding this trend.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continuously guides the exchange rate higher through daily midpoint setting (allowing onshore market rates to fluctuate within a 2% band around the midpoint). Meanwhile, state-owned banks frequently intervene in the USD market by buying USD to curb excessive volatility, enabling the RMB to USD exchange rate to rise steadily. The CFETS RMB Exchange Rate Index rose to 98.22 on November 21, reaching the highest level since April this year, fully confirming the strength of this trend.

Reshaping International Credibility: From Historical Lessons to Practical Actions

The policy intentions behind RMB appreciation are more far-reaching. Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, pointed out that from a strategic perspective, China is clearly demonstrating a resilient RMB image to establish international recognition. This is similar to the decision not to participate in competitive devaluation during the Asian Financial Crisis in 1998 — that decision laid the foundation for RMB to become a regional benchmark currency.

Comparing performances across different periods illustrates the point further: in 2018, under trade friction shocks, the RMB experienced about 5% depreciation pressure, whereas from 2025 to now, the RMB has appreciated nearly 3%. This 180-degree shift clearly indicates a significant change in policy orientation.

Market Data Confirm: USD to RMB Exchange Rate Activity Continues to Rise

The data is equally impressive. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), during the latest survey period since 2022, the average daily trading volume of USD against RMB surged by nearly 60%, reaching a scale of $7.81 trillion, accounting for over 8% of the total global foreign exchange daily trading volume. This data reflects that, alongside the strengthening of the USD to RMB exchange rate, market interest in RMB trading is also rapidly increasing.

Kiyong Seong, Chief Asia Macro Strategist at Société Générale, further pointed out that in an environment of increasing global market volatility, the stability and strength demonstrated by the RMB provide strong market validation for the RMB internationalization strategy.

Goldman Sachs Forecast: RMB Expected to Rise to 6.85 in 2026

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs analysts have expressed a clear outlook for RMB appreciation. Based on current policy orientations and market performance, Goldman Sachs expects the USD to RMB exchange rate to reach 7 per USD by the end of the year, with further appreciation to 6.85 in 2026.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that, by integrating analysis of economic fundamentals and non-economic factors, RMB internationalization has become a key policy goal for China’s decision-makers. It is expected that in the coming years, this process will accelerate significantly. This means the RMB’s position and usage in the global financial system will continue to expand, and changes in the USD to RMB exchange rate will serve as an important window into this trend.