Recently, there has been an interesting phenomenon: a large amount of capital continues to flow into crypto ETFs, yet Bitcoin's price hasn't really risen much. The underlying logic is actually quite sobering — it's not that the selling pressure is particularly fierce now, but rather that no one dares to take the other side anymore.

From the historical high point to now, Bitcoin has been undergoing a typical structural adjustment. Every time a rebound shows signs of emerging, it quickly fizzles out. The problem isn't that the selling pressure is too strong, but that new buying interest is simply lacking. Looking at the performance of US ETFs this year, they have attracted about $1.4 trillion in total, but the vast majority of that money has gone into stocks and bonds. Although crypto ETFs still show net inflows, the performance of Bitcoin spot ETFs is more like that of long-term asset allocations—bought and then left untouched.

The awkward point here is: money has indeed come in, but it hasn't created new marginal demand. Since mid-year, the market has fully digested this wave of ETF-related good news. Coupled with persistently high interest rates that suppress risk appetite, the entire market has begun to deleverage in an orderly fashion. Looking at the spot premium indicator of a major exchange, it has recently remained negative, which fully indicates that spot buying in the US market is gradually cooling down. This isn't a systemic risk outbreak; simply put, demand has temporarily dried up. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to fluctuate within this range, slowly weakening in price. We need to wait for new demand to reappear before the market can truly start moving.

Another detail worth noting: the Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio (SSR) has now fallen to 11.1, the lowest since January 2024. Compared to the level of 19.4 in July this year, it's been cut in half. The SSR indicator essentially measures the relationship between Bitcoin's price and stablecoin reserves—simply put, whether the coin is expensive or cheap, and whether there's plenty of money. The current data clearly shows that Bitcoin has indeed become cheaper, but the supply of stablecoins hasn't decreased accordingly—instead, it appears to be increasing. This indirectly confirms a fact: money is abundant, and coins are cheap, but no one wants to buy the dip in large quantities.