Bitcoin's $23.7 billion annual settlement is imminent: market patterns and predictions after previous major settlements

【BlockBeats】Bitcoin faces the largest annual settlement in history today at 16:00 (UTC+8) — a scale of $23.7 billion. This number looks intimidating, but let’s review past years’ records to see how the market typically reacts before and after such major events.

Starting with the end of 2023. The annual settlement on December 29 last year was about $11 billion, with the key level at $42,000. During the lead-up to the settlement, the market was tightly compressed, with BTC bouncing between $42,000 and $43,000, showing almost no significant volatility. Once the settlement was over, the “pressure cage” disappeared, and Bitcoin suddenly surged with high volume, quickly reaching $48,000 in the following days, kicking off a unilateral trend at the start of 2024.

This year, by the end of March (quarterly settlement on March 29), the scale increased to $15 billion, with the key level at $65,000. During that period, the market was tense due to halving expectations, with prices fluctuating between $60,000 and $70,000. Active hedging positions caused short-term suppression. The post-settlement story was quite satisfying: once gamma hedging was released, BTC broke upward, soaring above $70,000 just before the halving, and the bull market accelerated from there.

The quarterly settlement on June 28 (at $17 billion, with a key level at $60,000) was less smooth. Before settlement, the market entered a correction phase, with narrow oscillations around $60,000 and increased selling pressure. After expiration, volatility increased, but BTC initially fell then rebounded, maintaining a correction trend overall without an immediate rally.

On September 27, the situation changed (at $18 billion, with a key level at $62,000). Under the influence of Federal Reserve policies, prices were suppressed in the $55,000–$65,000 range, with liquidity tightening. After settlement, BTC broke upward, aided by expectations of rate cuts, triggering a rebound that pushed prices close to $70,000.

Looking at the December 27 annual settlement ($19.8 billion, with a key level at $75,000) — during the bull market peak. Prices oscillated between $70,000 and $80,000, with options traders leaning bullish and upward pressure not very strong, but holiday liquidity was weak. After settlement, hedging release pushed BTC through $80,000, and the Christmas rally continued to push prices higher.

Forecasting several 2025 settlements: before the quarterly settlement at the end of March ($14 billion, with a key level at $85,000), the market fluctuated around $80,000–$90,000, supported by positive regulatory sentiment. After expiration, BTC broke above $85,000, starting a push toward $100,000. The June 27 quarterly settlement ($14.5 billion, with a key level at $102,000) showed mixed market sentiment; after settlement, a short-term correction occurred but the overall trend remained upward. The August 29 settlement (over $14 billion, with a key level at $116,000) had thin holiday liquidity, with prices oscillating narrowly between $110,000 and $120,000. The gamma trap effect was evident, but after a short dip, BTC quickly recovered, maintaining the bull market pattern.

Now, it’s time for today’s big annual settlement. At $23.6 billion, with a key level at $96,000. Before settlement, holiday liquidity was already thin, and rising precious metal prices boosted safe-haven sentiment, causing BTC to be tightly pinned between $85,000 and $90,000, with strong gamma hedging suppression.

What happens after settlement? Once the “cage” disappears, market volatility is expected to release significantly. Many analysts are optimistic about breaking above $90,000, with some even expecting close to $100,000. The new year’s rally could then unfold. Historical patterns show that large settlements often accelerate market movements — barring black swan events, this time is likely no exception.