2025-12-26 02:43:09

Some thoughts on the future trend of Bitcoin,整理一下思路：

If BTC really breaks through the key resistance level of 100,000, then it basically confirms the validity of the bull market retest, and the subsequent upward expectation will be very strong.

But the problem is, failing to break through is also very normal—this often indicates a false breakout, which could be followed by a sharp decline. This kind of movement has been seen many times in history.

There is also a scenario of pure liquidation-driven volatility, with sideways oscillations that never stop, especially more likely to occur on weekends, with no clear direction.

These three scenarios each have their own probabilities, and recent volume and capital flow can actually help infer quite a bit. Does anyone want to discuss their own judgment?

BTC1.65%

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WalletsWatcher

· 1h ago

The probability of not breaking through 100,000 feels even greater, as the recent volume doesn't look strong enough. Consolidation is back again, and the weekend blood pressure update is high. Ten thousand yuan seems to have become an eternal dream. It feels like this time it's the big players shaking out the market, and the retail investors are still buying in. The real opportunity is during a sharp decline; this current position really doesn't mean much. In my opinion, just wait for it to hit another wave downward. History will repeat itself, and the false breakout scenario is back again. With such poor volume, how can there really be a breakthrough? Waiting online. In this kind of market, it's best to stay on the sidelines and wait, don't be fooled into chasing.

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OnlyUpOnly

· 7h ago

If we can't break through 100,000, we really need to be cautious; history always repeats itself. --- The sideways movement until the weekend is very familiar to me; it's just the whales accumulating. --- Trading volume is the real truth; the capital situation doesn't lie. --- Honestly, I don't think there's a high chance of breaking through 100,000; I've seen too many fake breakouts. --- The most annoying thing is the volatility of the delivery phase; having no direction is the biggest direction. --- It feels like this might be a sideways cycle; be patient and wait and see. --- A decrease in trading volume is a signal; I have already started reducing my positions. --- The 100,000 key level is really crucial; a breakout could send us soaring, if not, just keep waiting. --- Not to mention anything else, the capital situation decides everything; watch who is dumping. --- I don't believe any trend this weekend; it's all just a smokescreen.

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TerraNeverForget

· 7h ago

Whether or not it breaks 100,000, you can make money—it's all about which side you're on. If it can't break through, there's still a chance; anyway, in the end, it's all a trap. The number 100,000 sounds outrageous; it feels like it should drop. Just sideways trading, no one really watches the market on weekends anyway. Any of these three scenarios could happen; it all depends on how quick your reaction is. Volume is very deceptive; the funding situation is also unpredictable. Rather than analyzing so much, it's better to just jump in and gamble. 100,000 is too greedy; I prefer to hold at 80,000. Hearing you say that, I’m even more confused. Might as well go all in.

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GhostAddressHunter

· 7h ago

Breaking 100,000? Uh... You explained it quite comprehensively, but listing these three scenarios leaves me a bit confused. It seems anything is possible. Sideways trading is the most annoying; don't look at the market over the weekend. Watching it is just a waste. Speaking of volume, it's really hard to judge. Who can figure out what the main force is really doing? The 100,000 threshold is indeed a hurdle, but instead of guessing whether it will break or not, it's better to look at on-chain data. Recently, the capital situation has been so complicated that small investors following the trend are easily cut. It's better to wait for clearer signals before jumping in. A sharp decline is not really unlikely; history repeating itself is nothing to worry about.

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HalfPositionRunner

· 7h ago

There are really three possible scenarios, isn't it? Isn't this just gambling on probabilities? Breaking through 100,000 isn't earth-shattering; with so many historical instances, who hasn't seen it before? Weekend sideways trading is the most annoying, feeling anxious with nothing to do, yet afraid to make reckless moves. Trading volume needs to be watched closely; this wave feels a bit fake.

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SeasonedInvestor

· 8h ago

If I can't break 100,000, I'll run. I've seen too many of these tricks. Breakout means rise, false breakout means drop, either way it's right, right? Weekend settlement positions should rest. Retail investors don't have that much time to think. If the volume isn't enough, don't think about anything. Just watch and wait. I'm just relaxing now, waiting for Monday. Anyway, you can't make money during sideways trading.

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