AMD's Growth Blueprint: Why Lisa Su's Latest Projections Have Wall Street Watching

The Data Center Gamble That Could Define AMD’s Future

Lisa Su just laid out a vision for AMD that challenges the prevailing narrative around chip makers and artificial intelligence. While everyone assumes Nvidia owns the AI hardware race, AMD’s new financial targets suggest the competition is far from over—and that’s not just good news, it’s transformative news for investors willing to look beyond the headlines.

Here’s the reality: AMD and Nvidia operate in the same markets, but they’re not equally exposed to the same risks. During Q3 2025, Nvidia pulled a staggering 88% of its revenue from data centers. AMD? Only 49%. The remaining 51% comes from client computing (44%) and embedded processors (9%). As one might say when observing competitive advantage, this isn’t just a numbers game—it’s a structural difference that shapes everything about these companies’ futures.

Why AMD’s Diversification Matters More Than People Think

Nvidia’s concentration in data centers is both its greatest strength and its Achilles heel. If AI hyperscalers suddenly pump the brakes on their trillion-dollar spending spree, Nvidia faces a disproportionate impact. AMD would still hurt, but the pain gets absorbed across multiple revenue streams. In business terms, that’s called resilience. In investor terms, it’s called sleeping better at night.

But here’s where things get interesting: AMD isn’t banking on data center spending to slow. Quite the opposite.

The 60% Growth Projection That Changes Everything

At its Financial Analyst Day, AMD revealed a five-year roadmap that reads like science fiction—if you ignore the fact that these are company projections backed by actual product launches. The company expects its data center business to expand at a 60% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). For context, Q3 2025 saw data center revenue grow just 22% year over year. That’s not acceleration; that’s a complete shift in trajectory.

What’s driving this confidence? AMD’s latest computing units and enhanced software stack are finally putting the company on equal footing with Nvidia, at least according to Lisa Su’s calculations. The company believes there’s still enormous runway in the data center space—a space that’s only beginning to mature.

Meanwhile, AMD’s other segments get more modest treatment: embedded and client/gaming divisions are projected to grow at 10% CAGR each. Combined, this creates an overall company CAGR of 35% over five years, with non-GAAP earnings per share projected to exceed $20.

The Stock Price Math That Matters

Put a 30x earnings multiple on $20+ EPS, and AMD’s stock could theoretically reach $600 per share. Today, it trades around $250. That implies roughly 150% upside over five years—the kind of return that turns a $1,000 investment into $2,500.

Whether AMD actually delivers on these projections remains the billion-dollar question. The company has been remarkably conservative in its other segment forecasts, which suggests management isn’t simply painting an overly rosy picture. That measured approach lends some credibility to the data center acceleration story.

The Tradeoff Nobody’s Talking About

There’s an irony embedded in AMD’s strategy. Investors currently appreciate AMD because it’s more diversified than Nvidia—less dependent on any single business line. But if AMD executes its data center growth plan perfectly, that competitive advantage gets erased. The company would become increasingly concentrated in the same segment as its larger rival.

The question isn’t whether that’s good or bad. It’s whether the 60% growth trajectory justifies the shift in business composition. And based on the numbers AMD is projecting, the answer looks like yes.

Where Does AMD Go From Here?

AMD may never fully dethrone Nvidia in this competitive landscape. But capturing a meaningful share of a growing market while delivering market-crushing returns? That’s entirely plausible. The company’s latest product launches suggest it has the technology. Lisa Su’s projections suggest management believes in it. Whether investors should believe too depends on your risk tolerance and time horizon.