Weather Pressures Push Robusta Coffee to 2-Week Highs Amid Supply Chain Stress

Robusta coffee futures surged 2.37% today as weather complications in Vietnam’s leading coffee regions tighten global supplies. Meanwhile, arabica coffee climbed 0.57%, supported by dollar weakness and geopolitical trade dynamics. The dual-pronged rally reflects mounting concerns about crop disruptions and constrained inventory levels across both coffee varieties.

Vietnam’s Harvest Delays Reshape Market Dynamics

Heavy rainfall in Dak Lak province, Vietnam’s most productive coffee-growing area, has disrupted harvesting operations and sparked concerns about potential crop damage. Forecasts indicating additional precipitation through the coming weeks have intensified focus on how Vietnam’s 2025/26 output will ultimately perform. Vietnam’s coffee production is projected to reach 1.76 million metric tons for 2025/26—a 6% year-over-year increase and the highest level in four years—contingent on favorable weather conditions. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association indicated that output could climb 10% above the previous cycle if weather cooperates, though recent flooding threatens to derail these optimistic projections.

Understanding how coffee is grown under varying environmental conditions helps explain the market’s sensitivity to regional weather patterns. Vietnam, as the world’s largest robusta coffee producer, supplies roughly 29% of global robusta volumes. Disruptions to Vietnamese harvests therefore cascade through international supply chains rapidly.

Brazilian Market Dynamics and the Tariff Effect

Brazil’s coffee sector faces compounding headwinds. The Trump administration’s 40% tariff on Brazilian products has depressed US coffee imports, which fell 52% during August-October 2025 compared to the same period last year, dropping to 983,970 bags. American importers have cancelled new contracts for Brazilian coffee purchases, creating supply tightness for US roasters who source approximately one-third of their unroasted coffee from Brazil.

However, Brazil’s production outlook remains robust. Conab, Brazil’s official crop agency, forecasts 55.2 million bags of total coffee production for 2025, with arabica production estimated at 35.2 million bags. Looking ahead to 2026/27, StoneX projects Brazil will deliver 70.7 million bags—a 29% year-over-year jump—including 47.2 million bags of arabica varieties.

Recent rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s premier arabica-growing region, measured only 19.8 mm during the week ending November 14, falling 42% short of historical averages. While this deficit signals potential stress for next season’s crop development, forecasters expect additional precipitation toward week’s end, which could alleviate drought concerns.

Global Inventory Pressures Support Prices

ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories have compressed to their lowest level in 1.75 years, declining to 396,513 bags as of Tuesday. Robusta inventories similarly tightened to a 4-month low of 5,640 lots today. These inventory contractions underscore the tightness characterizing the current market environment and provide fundamental support for prices despite elevated production forecasts.

The International Coffee Organization reported that global coffee exports for the current marketing year (October-September) slipped 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags, indicating only marginal inventory build despite ample production announcements.

Production Outlook and Long-Term Supply Trajectory

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service projects world coffee production will climb 2.5% year-over-year in 2025/26 to a record 178.68 million bags. Within this total, robusta output is expected to surge 7.9% to 81.658 million bags, while arabica production may decline 1.7% to 97.022 million bags. FAS forecasts Vietnam’s 2025/26 production at 31 million bags—a 6.9% increase and the highest in four years—while Brazil’s output is pegged at 65 million bags, representing a modest 0.5% year-over-year gain.

Vietnam has already demonstrated robust export momentum, with January-October 2025 shipments rising 13.4% year-over-year to 1.31 million metric tons, suggesting strong execution despite weather uncertainties ahead.

Market Takeaway

The interplay between near-term weather disruptions, structural tariff impacts, and long-term supply expansion is creating a complex backdrop for coffee pricing. While robust production forecasts may weigh on prices fundamentally, inventory tightness and crop uncertainty continue to support current levels. Traders monitoring both fundamental supply data and geopolitical trade developments are likely to remain engaged as these dynamics evolve.