2025-12-26 03:23:11

Many people cheer when they see Tokyo CPI drop from 2.8% to 2.3%, but this logic happens to be a trap.

What is the real situation? The Bank of Japan's target is set at 2%. Currently, the data still hovers at 2.3%, still above the target. Don't be fooled by the word "decrease"—this is not good news; on the contrary, it indicates that inflation has not been truly defeated. The Bank of Japan already has a reason to tighten monetary policy.

What does this mean for the crypto market?

In the past few years, yen arbitrage trading has been an important source of global liquidity. Banks can lend yen cheaply, and investors borrow to invest everywhere—including in crypto assets. Once the Bank of Japan begins a rate hike cycle, the cost of these yen funds will rise, and massive arbitrage positions will accelerate their unwind and flow back. Imagine when this tide of funds turns, the relatively niche crypto market will feel the pull first.

What should retail investors do now?

First, don't rush to buy in. Whenever macro data is released, the market loves to create a narrative of "good news." But the true direction comes from the pace of central bank policies, not the monthly data fluctuations.

Second, maintain cash reserves. This is not conservatism; it's survival. Those who can last longer are more likely to seize opportunities when they come.

Third, pay attention to on-chain movements. The true intentions of big players won't deceive you—tracking whale wallet flows can sometimes be more valuable than candlestick charts.

Head assets like $ETH may face short-term selling pressure, but in the long run, everything still depends on the fundamentals and the game of policy cycles.

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MultiSigFailMaster

· 12-29 03:10

If Japan raises interest rates, yen arbitrage will collapse, and the crypto world will indeed take a hit --- Don't be fooled by the 2.3%, the central bank still needs to continue surgery --- The yen repatriation wave is coming, are retail investors still buying in? Too naive --- Whale wallets are watching closely, more effective than just monitoring chart patterns --- If the Bank of Japan really hikes interest rates this time, ETH will definitely struggle in the short term --- Cash is king, and it's not just talk; you need to live longer to wait for the reversal --- In simple terms, central bank policies are the ultimate authority; monthly data are just smoke and mirrors --- With yen arbitrage loosening, the crypto world will be the first to be affected, so be mentally prepared

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BitcoinDaddy

· 12-29 02:13

The Bank of Japan is really going all out this time. When the arbitrage liquidation wave hits, the crypto circle better run first. Don't be happy just because the data is dropping; it's still holding at 2.3%. The central bank has already set its sights on it. Holding onto cash is the truth. Retail investors' desire to buy the dip must be suppressed.

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RugPullAlertBot

· 12-27 20:15

It's the same old story of "data decline is good," how many people have to get hit by this. The Bank of Japan hasn't even raised interest rates yet, and with the yen arbitrage flow returning, the crypto world is really crying.

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MerkleMaid

· 12-26 03:52

The yen arbitrage is about to recover, the crypto circle should be prepared to be cut.

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RektRecorder

· 12-26 03:52

Another wave of "data decline = good news" self-congratulation, this time caught by the CPI. Wake up, everyone. The real killer move is the massive escape from yen arbitrage. When funds flow back, the crypto market instantly turns into a bloodbath. Holding cash is better than anything else. If you can't endure the cycle, don't play. Whale wallet movements are a hundred times more valuable than trash talk. Keep a close eye on on-chain data. Is it time for another wave of being cut? If the Bank of Japan doesn't take tough measures this time, $ETH needs to stay sharp. Don't believe in the nonsense of "good news." A policy shift is the real earthquake. The biggest enemy of retail investors is impatience. Repeating this a thousand times still isn't enough.

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HashRateHermit

· 12-26 03:50

Damn, another wave of people got chopped by the CPI data. This tactic is really clever. The Bank of Japan is about to raise interest rates, and the yen arbitrage strategy is about to cool off. The ATM in the crypto world is about to shut down. Some people will definitely cry and shout that no one told them after this drop. It's still best to hold onto cash tightly and wait for whale movements. The real big show is still to come.

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SybilAttackVictim

· 12-26 03:48

Here we go again, every time the data comes out, someone starts telling stories... I just want to ask, when the rate hikes really happen, do we still have any liquidity cushion? Once the Japanese carry trade collapses, the crypto world gets drained instantly. Looks like no one will save the day this time. We still need to hold onto cash and watch how the big players on the chain run. Wait, does this logic mean that the short term is even more dangerous? Then my little stash of $ETH... Honestly, it's more reliable to watch whale wallets than to look at K-line charts. Too many people have been fooled by the data. The real killer move comes from the central banks; monthly fluctuations are just illusions. I believe in that. Retail investors are always a step slower than the central banks in reacting, but we can't be too greedy... staying alive is more important than anything. The most dangerous time is often when others are celebrating. I've seen this pattern too many times.

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StakeOrRegret

· 12-26 03:46

The yen arbitrage explosion and the bloodbath in the crypto circle—this wave really can't be avoided --- Another wave of bagholders being cut, CPI decline ≠ central bank not raising interest rates; how long can this logic fool people? --- Holding cash is holding a lifeline; watching whale movements is much more reliable than watching K-line charts --- Short-term selling pressure is inevitable; the question is whether you can survive the rebound --- Don't follow the hype and shout about good news; if Japan really raises interest rates, all these yen leverage positions will have to be closed --- $ETH this wave is really tough, but anyone still going all-in now is a gambler

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BrokenYield

· 12-26 03:24

ngl, yen carry unwind gonna hurt like a systemic risk cocktail... smart money already reading the tea leaves on this one.

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