【Crypto World】There is an interesting phenomenon called the “Santa Claus Rally”—starting from the last five trading days of December, plus the first two trading days of January, the S&P 500 index has an extraordinarily high probability of rising during this period. Historically, nearly 80% of the years follow this pattern.
Even more surprisingly, as long as the market performs well during these days, the entire following year often continues to rise. Statistics show that the gains usually reach double digits, with five instances even exceeding 20%. This indicates that market trends at the end and beginning of the year can sometimes predict the overall trend for the year—although past data does not guarantee future performance, this pattern is indeed worth paying attention to.
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WagmiOrRekt
· 5h ago
80% chance? That made me laugh, it feels way more reliable than buying a lottery ticket haha
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faded_wojak.eth
· 11h ago
Damn, an 80% probability? How intense does it have to be to be statistically significant?
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So buying US stocks at the end of the year guarantees a win for the whole year? LOL, historical patterns are unpredictable.
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If this wave doesn't rise, I'll just sell off directly and bet on Santa Claus.
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Wait, five times 20% increases... where does this data come from? It feels a bit off.
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"Past data doesn't represent the future," brother, just admit that this system is mysticism.
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LayerZeroHero
· 12-27 08:22
80% probability? How can this data be so outrageous? It feels necessary to watch out for survivor bias.
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DaoGovernanceOfficer
· 12-26 10:10
ngl this "santa claus rally" thing is just survivorship bias dressed up as market wisdom. the data suggests those 80% years probably exclude all the times it didn't work... empirically speaking, you're cherry-picking a 7-day window. what about the other 358 days? 🤓
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FreeRider
· 12-26 10:10
80% probability? Come on, every time someone brings up historical data, and then they get proven wrong in the end.
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TokenomicsTinfoilHat
· 12-26 10:10
80% chance? Is that real? Can you believe this trick? I heard a similar statement last year, and what was the result?
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LiquidationWizard
· 12-26 10:06
80% chance? Isn't that just a stable cash machine? Why does it seem like not many people are really making money?
The "Christmas Magic" of the S&P 500: Historical Data Reveals Year-End Market Patterns
【Crypto World】There is an interesting phenomenon called the “Santa Claus Rally”—starting from the last five trading days of December, plus the first two trading days of January, the S&P 500 index has an extraordinarily high probability of rising during this period. Historically, nearly 80% of the years follow this pattern.
Even more surprisingly, as long as the market performs well during these days, the entire following year often continues to rise. Statistics show that the gains usually reach double digits, with five instances even exceeding 20%. This indicates that market trends at the end and beginning of the year can sometimes predict the overall trend for the year—although past data does not guarantee future performance, this pattern is indeed worth paying attention to.