2025-12-26 10:22:56

市场在暴雨前往往最平静。当下币圈行情格局值得深度观察——这波走势结构和2022年那轮熊市惊人相似。回看历史，A浪通常会造成30-50%的跳水，随后进入盘整期。更值得警惕的是，C浪暴跌之前总会有一波诱多拉升，吸引散户上车，最后一把反手砸盘割韭菜。

面对这样的市场节奏，有经验的交易者应该这样应对：一旦遇到异常上涨，立即在两个关键阻力位——3170和3400——布局长线低倍空单。根据历史规律，币价下杀通常在议息会议前两周启动，预计从1月中旬开始跌势，最终在1月27号议息前后触及底部。

短期机会也不容错过。假期期间由于机构休市，市场波动极其有限，反而是套利交易的黄金窗口。拿ETH来说，在接近3000美元附近可以轻仓布局小空单，目标位看向2950；ZEC同样在450附近可以小仓尝试，预期跌到435。这类操作虽然单笔利润有限，但胜在稳定可控，可以用小利润滚雪球。

大仓位玩家则需要严阵以待。假期内维持观察态势，如果出现较大反弹可以适度参与，如果没有明显反弹机会，就耐心等待1月中旬的空头布局节点。这波节奏里，1月不太可能出现降息，所以提前规划好交易方案才是关键。

ETH-1,05%

ZEC2,16%

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HallucinationGrower

· 12-28 13:30

Oh, it's the same old story again. Can the 2022 drama really be replayed? I doubt it. Wait a minute... How are you so sure about the 3170 level? Trying to shake out us retail investors again, haha.

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LightningPacketLoss

· 12-27 18:27

Is another wave of rug pulls coming? We've seen the tricks of诱多拉升 (fake pump to lure in buyers) before, just worried about getting trapped. Short positions sound stable, but does history really repeat itself that accurately? I remain skeptical. The idea of a bottom at 1月27号 (January 27th), I have my doubts. Small orders like ZEC 435, with tiny profits, still need to pay fees—tiring, isn't it? No risk when the institutions are closed? I scoff, that's when you're most vulnerable to ambush. Wait, is 3170 really a solid bottom? What if it breaks? Whether this drop continues or not, focus on protecting your principal first before researching short positions. Anyway, I don't believe the 2022 rules still apply; the world has changed. ETH at $3000 is tempting, but I don't dare go all-in with that logic.

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CoffeeOnChain

· 12-27 16:10

Here is the translation: --- It's the same old story again, always saying it's like 2022, but what actually happened... --- Short positions, short positions, why don't you get in first yourself? --- Talking so detailed, if it's really going to fall, do you still need to "kindly" remind retail investors? --- ETH around 3000 with small short positions sounds good, but what about the risk warning, brother? --- The "golden window" for holiday arbitrage... I always feel it's a window for leek farmers to be harvested. --- Starting to drop in mid-January, why is this timing so precise? Are you a Federal Reserve spokesperson? --- Listening to the idea of a snowball rolling is appealing, but only if you bet on the right direction. --- Are the positions at 3170 and 3400 already ambushed by someone? --- The calmest market... the most dangerous, I've heard this countless times. --- Predicting a bottom before the interest rate decision, clearly a post-hoc rationalization.

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defi_detective

· 12-26 10:52

Coming back with the same story? The 2022 story is still being told, feels like every time they get it right haha This round does look a bit fierce, but who can really predict the trap of enticing more? Retail investors are going to get cut again.

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degenwhisperer

· 12-26 10:52

Here comes the talk about historical patterns and routines again. I'm tired of hearing about comparing 2022. --- The real standard tutorial for cutting leeks. Are you still using the trick of诱多拉升? --- Small funds rolling snowballs sounds good, but I'm worried about being cut again in the end. --- Bottomed out on January 27? I don't believe such precise predictions. No one in the crypto circle can be that accurate with timing. --- Short position deployment sounds aggressive, but the problem is, who can cut losses when a rebound occurs? --- Institutional market closure with low volatility? Uh... holidays are just the right time for black swan events. --- I think ETH at 3000 can still push further, not necessarily heading straight to 2950. --- Big players waiting until mid-January? Feels too passive. They should have started deploying in batches earlier. --- Why do I always feel that this kind of analysis is just armchair quarterbacking after the fact? --- Small account arbitrage is stable, but if you keep rolling, you'll just keep getting in deeper, you get it, right?

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WagmiWarrior

· 12-26 10:51

It's the same old story, using the 2022 standards is too outdated.

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TommyTeacher

· 12-26 10:51

Another 2022 reissue theory, wake up brother, this time it's really different

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CountdownToBroke

· 12-26 10:47

Starting to talk about 2022 again, can you stop scaring people every day... I'm tired of hearing about the trap and rally strategy, and what’s the result? Short position setup? I think it's a bearish setup. Small profits snowballing, sounds great, but in reality? Can institutions stabilize arbitrage during holidays when the market is closed? Dream on, everyone. The bottom was reached on January 27... I bet you'll change your tune again.

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MoneyBurnerSociety

· 12-26 10:45

Here we go again with arbitrage, small position snowballing... As the king of negative alpha, my specialty is turning small gains into big losses haha It's January 27th again with the bottom theory, I said the same thing last year around this time Short positions at 3170 and 3400? I followed that advice last time and got automatically liquidated A textbook case of 2022... I was also a textbook loser during that bear market The golden window for holiday arbitrage, sounds just like the "excellent opportunity" I had last time to bottom fish Wait, am I here as a contrarian researcher? Then this article can be considered a contrarian indicator 诱多拉升吸散户... Brother, are you talking about me? Snowballing, huh? My small profits usually roll into liquidation prices No matter how accurate historical patterns are, they can't match the precision of my contract predictions (loss forecasts) Small position, small position... Always talking about small positions, but in the end, the account is gone

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BlockImposter

· 12-26 10:24

Another 2022 remake script, can it really hit the bottom this time? I’ve fallen for the evil again.

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