What will happen this afternoon at 4 PM? The $23.7 billion Bitcoin options expiration—this is the largest in history. It’s not just a number; for retail investors, it signifies the potential for sharp market volatility.

Looking at past expiration records makes this clear. Every massive expiration has rewritten the market landscape. After the expiration at the end of 2023, BTC surged directly to 48,000; the March 2024 expiration triggered the halving bull run; but June 2024 was different—after expiration, the price first plunged into a pit, then rebounded. What’s behind this? Institutions are leveraging the "maximum pain point" and Gamma hedging mechanisms to manipulate the market. They have pre-positioned, using complex derivatives strategies to suppress volatility. Once the expiration day passes, those artificial pressures are released, and the price either skyrockets or crashes, catching retail investors off guard.

Speaking of this time’s "maximum pain point"—$96,000. This price point is critical because it represents the level where the majority of options are most likely to incur losses. Institutions have enough motivation to pin the price near this level before expiration, invalidating a large number of options positions. After the expiration, those artificial suppressions vanish, and the price inevitably moves away from this zone. Whether it rises or falls is often determined by the intentions of big funds.

What is retail investors’ current mindset? They’re afraid of missing out and also afraid of getting trapped. This is exactly what institutions want to see. Human nature manifests most strongly at such moments—in times of thinning liquidity during holidays, institutions create a "calm before the storm." Retail investors are either overly nervous or blindly optimistic, turning expiration into their "net closing day."

The reason history is eerily similar is because participants’ psychology has never truly changed. The key is to recognize: large fluctuations are inevitable; the only difference is when and in which direction. Those who prepare in advance often find opportunities when others are taking losses.

No matter how intense the market becomes, staying alert is the most important. Don’t let sudden drops disrupt your rhythm, and don’t be blinded by rebounds. Every major event is a window into market participants’ intentions—understanding these allows your trading decisions to truly break free from human nature’s constraints.