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Prediction Markets: What Has Changed Is Not Just Accuracy… But Also Volume and Impact
Cumulative Volume: $14.12 trillion
Participation and Liquidity Accelerate via Kalshi and Polymarket
Prediction errors are 40% lower compared to consensus
Outperformance rises to 67% during high volatility periods
Why is this important?
The larger the volume, the faster prices absorb information with less noise.
Thus, prediction markets shift from a side idea to an instant forecast layer — often ahead of polls and models.
When uncertainty rises…
Watch where the money 👀 flows
Probability markets have become an advanced macro indicator, not a marginal one... $BTC