Trump's Marijuana Reclassification: Does It Make Green Thumb, Tilray, and Trulieve Real Opportunities for Investors?

The Policy Shift That Changes Everything

On December 18, 2025, President Trump issued an executive order that marks a watershed moment for the U.S. cannabis sector. The directive calls for reclassifying marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III under federal law—a transformation the American Trade Association for Cannabis and Hemp described as “the most consequential federal cannabis policy change in half a century.”

To understand why this matters, consider the context: Since 1970, marijuana’s Schedule I status labeled it as having “no currently accepted medical use and high abuse potential.” Trump’s order instructs Attorney General Pam Bondi to implement the shift to Schedule III, which acknowledges “moderate to low potential for physician and psychological dependence.” This reclassification validates what 40 states and D.C. have already recognized—that cannabis has legitimate medical applications.

However, Trump was explicit: the executive order “does not legalize marijuana in any capacity and does not endorse recreational use.” The change is narrowly focused on medical cannabis at the federal level.

The Tangible Benefits for Cannabis Operators

Three major players—Green Thumb Industries (OTC: GTBIF), Tilray Brands (NASDAQ: TLRY), and Trulieve Cannabis (OTC: TCNNF)—stand to gain considerably from this policy shift.

The most direct advantage stems from potential exemption from IRS Code Section 280E, which currently prevents cannabis businesses from deducting routine operating costs like payroll, rent, and utilities. Removing this restriction could meaningfully improve profit margins for all three companies. Leadership at each firm publicly endorsed the administration’s announcement.

Beyond accounting treatment, reclassification could unlock additional benefits. Banks have historically avoided cannabis businesses due to the legal contradiction between state legalization and federal prohibition. Schedule III status may reduce that reluctance, expanding access to capital and financial services. Marketing investments, previously constrained, could accelerate revenue growth.

Tilray has already signaled its intentions, announcing expanded U.S. medical cannabis operations following Trump’s announcement. This proactive stance suggests management confidence in the policy’s durability.

The Reality Check: Not All Cannabis Stocks Are Created Equal

Despite the tailwind, these three companies present notably different risk profiles.

Tilray’s financial picture remains concerning. The Canadian operator reported a net loss of $793.5 million in Q3 2025—a substantial headwind that reclassification alone won’t quickly reverse. Trulieve, the Florida-based operator, also remains unprofitable, posting a Q3 net loss of $27 million.

Green Thumb, by contrast, operates profitably. Yet its valuation demands scrutiny. At a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 34.6, the Illinois-based company commands a premium that leaves limited margin for error. Should reclassification timelines slip or fail to materialize as fully as expected, the valuation could deflate rapidly.

The Investment Verdict

Reclassification is unquestionably consequential for the cannabis industry. But it’s one factor among many. Each company must be evaluated independently—profitability, balance sheet strength, competitive positioning, and management execution all matter alongside policy developments.

Schedule III status opens a door. Whether Green Thumb, Tilray, and Trulieve walk through it profitably depends on far more than federal reclassification alone.