The story of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has recently started to reverse. The market's previous consensus of a rate cut in the first quarter of next year now appears to be decreasing in probability. Behind this shift is a key variable—the political pressure on monetary policy.

Demanding a direct cut of interest rates from the current 3.5% range down to 1% is no longer just a policy suggestion but has evolved into a contest over market confidence. Once expectations of political interference ferment in the market, it can easily trigger doubts about the independence of the central bank, thereby amplifying the volatility of risk assets.

Traders are now faced with two options. One is to bet that liquidity will eventually flood the market—massive release of cheap dollars, with high-risk assets riding the wave upward. The other is to wait and see, as the uncertainty surrounding policy expectations alone is enough to create market movements.

Interestingly, the huge gap between expectations and reality is becoming a new trading opportunity. The market is waking up from its optimism about rate cuts, and this sentiment reversal is often accompanied by a noticeable increase in volatility. For crypto assets, this presents both risks and potential opportunities—it's all about how you interpret these policy signals.