2025-12-31 15:22:29

2026 is an interesting time point for the US market. This year coincides with the midterm elections during the presidential election cycle, and typically, stock market performance in such years is relatively flat. However, what's interesting is that for the incumbent president seeking re-election (such as Trump in 2026), midterm elections are actually a relatively positive signal.

Looking at historical data, the S&P 500 has performed quite well during these election cycles — it has increased every year, with an average gain of around +20%. What does this data tell us? It indicates that even in the context of somewhat unstable political cycles, the market still operates according to its own logic.

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HashBandit

· 5h ago

ok so they're saying mid-term years pump 20% on average? nah man, that's some cherry-picked data if i've ever seen it. back in my mining days we used to call this "narrative mining" lol... like people just pick the stats that fit their story. what about the years it didn't pump? conveniently left those out?

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NotFinancialAdviser

· 2025-12-31 15:51

Haha, midterm election years are actually taking off. The more chaotic politics are, the more money you can make, right? --- +20% average increase? Let's look at the real data from 2026 first, then boast. Historical data doesn't equal future results. --- Wait, what are the prerequisites for Trump to be re-elected... This logic is a bit far-fetched. --- The market has its own logic, and investors' wallets have their own logic... Just listen and consider. --- The S&P 500 has risen every year in history, but that doesn't mean it will rise next year. This kind of reasoning is a bit dangerous. --- So, are midterm election years a good time to position? Or can those already positioned sleep soundly? --- The more politicized, the easier it is to get cut. Or just honestly look at the fundamentals.

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MidnightTrader

· 2025-12-31 15:29

Wait, an average increase of +20% in historical data? How is this data calculated? It feels a bit uncertain. The market has logic, but politics also has variables. It's really hard to say how Trump will play this game. 2026 is still far away. It's too early to talk about positive news now. It's an election year and a mid-term election. Those who dare to heavily invest at this time must have a couple of tricks up their sleeves. An average increase of +20% sounds appealing, but I wonder if the sample size is sufficient. By the way, can political cycles really align with market cycles, or are we over-interpreting?

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LuckyBlindCat