The signals released by the Federal Reserve's December meeting are arguably the biggest shock of the year. The 9:3 voting result set a record for the most dissenting votes since 2019, with heated debates inside the meeting room—doves felt the rate cuts were too slow, hawks strongly opposed any cuts, 19 officials held different views, 7 called for a pause, 3 even wanted to hike rates, and 1 shouted for a 150 basis point cut. Powell was caught in the middle, under immense pressure.

The interest rate was ultimately set at 3.5%-3.75%. This was the third rate cut of the year, which seems significant, but officials supporting the decision privately admitted they "almost voted against it." In other words, this rate cut was full of compromises. Outside the meeting, Trump continued to pressure for further rate cuts, while the Fed had to contend with his political interference and fight inflation—an unprecedented situation.

Numbers are the most convincing. Christmas season prices soared by 26%, swimwear jumped from $100 directly to $340, meaning the average American family will spend an extra $2,400 annually. 55% of the public openly complain about worsening financial conditions. Economic data, however, is bizarre—Q3 GDP surged to 4.3%, exceeding expectations, yet inflation remains high, and employment data is declining simultaneously. This contradictory situation makes decision-making particularly difficult.

The Fed claims the $40 billion bond purchase operation is merely a "technical operation," but the market interprets it as a "quasi-QE." Experts warn that this essentially leaves a mess for the next leadership to clean up. In 2025, a major reshuffle of voting members will occur—2 hawks and 1 mild hawk will join, with only 1 dove remaining, meaning the difficulty of cutting rates will only increase from now on. The dot plot already hints that there may be only one rate cut opportunity in 2026.

Market forecasts show an 80.1% probability of pausing rate cuts in January. The Fed has already hit the "pause" button, waiting for clearer economic signals. For investors holding assets like CHZ, AT, ZEC, what should be the next asset allocation? The direction for A-shares and Hong Kong stocks looks promising, with continued inflows from northbound funds, and sectors like tech growth and high-dividend stocks worth attention. Gold has become a "stabilizer" amid a weakening dollar, and allocating 5%-10% as a hedge could be considered. For dollar assets, shorter-term, 6-month high-yield deposits are a safer choice.

Trump is still calling for "not enough rate cuts" from afar, while Powell is balancing inflation control and political pressure. The Fed's independence is facing an unprecedented test. What do you think about the rate cut prospects in 2026?