Spring and Winter Wheat Navigate Divergent Paths Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty

mev_me_maybe · 2025-12-31T15:37:53+00:00

The wheat market showed mixed results, with soft and hard red winter wheat futures declining, while Minneapolis spring wheat remained stable. Geopolitical discussions and export activity added uncertainty, yet year-to-date exports rose significantly.

mev_me_maybe

2025-12-31 15:37:53

Abstract generation in progress

The wheat market displayed a tale of two directions on Monday, with soft red winter varieties and hard red winter contracts retreating while Minneapolis spring wheat held its ground. Chicago SRW futures declined 5-6 cents, while Kansas City HRW contracts lost between 5-7 cents by session’s end. In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat—often considered thin wheats due to lower trading volumes—maintained stability with modest gains up to a penny.

Geopolitical Developments Weigh on Sentiment

Over the weekend, discussions between U.S. and Ukrainian leadership regarding potential peace negotiations with Russia created ripples across commodity markets. While statements suggested progress toward resolution, several sticking points remained, introducing uncertainty into the trading environment and potentially affecting demand forecasts for the coming weeks.

Export Activity Shows Seasonal Slowdown

USDA export data for the week ending December 25 revealed 302,096 MT (11.1 mbu) of wheat shipments—a significant 52.47% decline from the previous week and 11.12% below the comparable 2024 period. Bangladesh emerged as the leading buyer with 115,946 MT, followed by Thailand at 68,589 MT and the Dominican Republic receiving 44,311 MT. However, marketing year exports since June 1 tell a different story, reaching 15.06 MMT (553.5 mbu), representing a robust 22.02% increase versus the prior year’s equivalent period.

Contract Settlements Reflect Market Pressure

March 2026 CBOT wheat futures closed at $5.13, down 6 cents, while May contracts finished at $5.24 3/4, also declining 6 cents. Kansas City hard red winter followed suit with March delivery at $5.27 1/4 (down 6 1/4 cents) and May at $5.40 1/4 (down 5 3/4 cents). Minneapolis spring wheat showed relative resilience, with March unchanged at $5.79 1/4 and May edging higher at $5.90 3/4 (up 1/4 cent), reinforcing the divergence between thin wheats trading patterns and traditional winter wheat futures.

The market continues balancing near-term export softness against the backdrop of stronger year-to-date shipment volumes and evolving international conditions.

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