Where are the promised Robotaxi and Mars landing? Musk's 2025 ends with "zero fulfillment"

Author: Zhang Yaqi

Source: Wall Street Journal

Original Title: 2025 is coming to an end, none of the bulls Elon Musk boasted about have come true

As 2025 draws to a close, reviewing Elon Musk’s series of grand promises for the year—from the widespread adoption of autonomous driving technology to breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, and even to reductions in government spending—the market has found a complete lack of fulfillment. The tech giant’s multiple key timelines promised to investors and the public have not materialized by year’s end.

In Tesla’s most impactful business area on the capital markets, Musk explicitly told investors that by the end of 2025, Tesla’s Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) would cover half of the U.S. population and no longer require human safety drivers. However, the current operational status is far from this guidance: the service is limited to parts of Austin, Texas, and still relies on onboard safety monitors.

Beyond corporate underperformance, Musk-led government efficiency department (DOGE) has also failed to meet its fiscal commitments. Although Musk vowed to cut $2 trillion in federal spending, the latest data shows federal expenditures have not decreased—in fact, not only did they fail to meet the reduction target, but under DOGE’s oversight, federal spending in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by approximately $248 billion compared to the same period last year.

This series of unmet promises spans broad areas, including space exploration and general artificial intelligence. Whether it’s SpaceX’s long-term vision of sending humans to Mars or xAI’s prediction of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI) within the year, both have been delayed. This systemic “overpromising and underdelivering” is prompting markets to reassess the credibility of Musk’s future forward-looking guidance.

Robotaxi Coverage and Fully Autonomous Driving Promises Fail to Materialize

Tesla’s progress in autonomous driving remains a core focus for investors and one of Musk’s most significant overcommitments. During Tesla’s Q2 2025 earnings call in July, Musk asserted that by year’s end, Tesla’s Robotaxi service would cover half of the U.S. population. However, by the end of the year, the service was only operational in parts of Austin, Texas, and even local residents rarely saw these vehicles on the streets.

More critically, the realization of “full self-driving” technology remains unfulfilled. Musk repeatedly reaffirmed during the Q4 2024 earnings call and in multiple public statements in September, October, and December that by 2025, the Austin-based Robotaxi would remove human safety drivers, achieving true “driverless operation.” Musk even claimed at the xAI hackathon in early December that “the issue of no supervision has been basically solved.” Yet, in reality, due to Texas regulatory requirements and current technological limitations, Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of late December still requires human safety monitors onboard. Despite Musk posting videos of rides in fully autonomous vehicles, these are confirmed to be test runs; the service used by ordinary users still involves manual intervention.

Failure to Achieve DOGE Spending Reduction Goals

In the public finance sector, Musk’s performance as leader of the newly established quasi-government agency DOGE has also fallen short. After Trump was re-elected, Musk promised to cut $2 trillion of “waste, fraud, and abuse” funds via DOGE. However, over time, this target was first revised down to $1 trillion, then further reduced to several hundred billion dollars.

Market analysis indicates that DOGE has not achieved substantial savings. Data shows that in the first 11 months of 2025, federal government spending totaled $7.6 trillion, which is actually about $248 billion higher than the same period in 2024. Analysts point out that many government contracts claimed to be canceled by DOGE are still active, and the data released has been repeatedly criticized for inaccuracy.

xAI’s General AI and Roadster Demo Delays

In artificial intelligence, Musk previously stated on social media platform X that his company xAI would achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) by 2025. However, this milestone was not reached within the year. According to Business Insider, Musk has postponed the timeline for achieving AGI to future years.

Additionally, highly anticipated hardware products have also failed to debut as scheduled. Musk revealed on Joe Rogan’s podcast that Tesla would demonstrate a long-delayed Roadster prototype before year’s end, hinting at possible “flying car” technology. Yet, as 2025 ends, the Roadster, which has been accepting reservations since 2017, has not been officially released, and the so-called flying demonstration has not appeared.

Mars Landing Plan Delayed

In space exploration, Musk’s long-term schedule has also faced setbacks. As early as the 2016 Recode conference, Musk predicted in a conversation with Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg that if all went well, SpaceX would launch crewed rockets in 2024 and reach Mars in 2025. The reality is that, by the end of 2025, the goal of human landing on Mars has not been achieved. This prediction, like his 2011 statement about sending humans to Mars within 10 years, has not been fulfilled.