Betting on Space: Why This Defense-Focused Lunar Player Might Outpace the Recent Moon Landing Rally

The space industry is heating up as investors wake up to the profit potential in orbital commerce and lunar exploration. Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) has captured headlines and investor dollars, with shares climbing over 70% in recent weeks following its historic Odysseus lunar lander mission in February 2024—the first U.S. moon landing in half a century. But for those seeking deeper exposure to the expanding space-and-defense nexus, there’s a compelling alternative worth exploring.

Why the Intuitive Machines Rally May Have Peaked

When Intuitive Machines successfully landed its Nova-C class lander on the lunar surface, it marked a watershed moment for commercial space operations and reignited American lunar ambitions. The stock’s explosive 70% surge stems partly from analyst enthusiasm, with firms like KeyBanc providing bullish coverage. The company’s core competency—designing and manufacturing lunar vehicles for NASA contracts—positions it as a legitimate player in the emerging space economy.

However, the recent valuation spike leaves limited room for further near-term appreciation, particularly when alternative opportunities offer more diversified revenue streams and longer-term growth catalysts.

Meet Firefly Aerospace: The Underdog with Moon and Missile Defense Credentials

While less visible to mainstream investors, Firefly Aerospace (NASDAQ: FLY) presents a more compelling thesis. Trading 42% below its August public market debut, the company combines dual mandates: lunar operations and defense-tech innovation—a combination that could unlock substantially greater shareholder value.

On the lunar front, Firefly is far from standing still. In Q3 2025, NASA awarded the company a $176.7 million Commercial Lunar Payload Services contract to deliver five payloads to the moon’s south pole by 2029. This represents proven execution capability, not speculative potential.

The Real Growth Engine: Defense Diversification

What distinguishes Firefly from pure-play lunar operators is its aggressive pivot toward defense. This August, the company closed an $855 million acquisition of SciTec, a defense technologies specialist focused on space domain awareness and missile defense systems. More recently, Firefly partnered with Kratos Defense & Security Solutions to develop hypersonic technology platforms—capabilities increasingly central to national security strategies.

This diversification matters because while lunar contracts are lumpy and episodic, defense spending is structural and sustained. By marrying space exploration expertise with defense applications, Firefly has created a more resilient business model than companies relying solely on NASA lunar missions.

The Investment Case: Why Stock Price Weakness Matters Here

Intuitive Machines’ recent surge reflects justified optimism about space commerce, but Firefly’s 42% pullback from its August IPO presents a more attractive entry point for long-term investors. The company possesses the same core space credentials while boasting superior defense sector positioning. In an era where space-based surveillance and weaponry are geopolitical imperatives, Firefly’s strategic positioning offers exposure to secular tailwinds that transcend any single government contract.

For investors seeking exposure to the space economy through a company with genuine moon operations credentials plus meaningful defense revenue upside, Firefly deserves consideration alongside—or instead of—the recently surging Intuitive Machines.