Beyond Lunar Moonshots: Why Firefly Aerospace May Be the Superior Space Stock Play

The Space Economy is Drawing Crowds, But Are All Players Created Equal?

As the space industry captures investor imagination, companies like Intuitive Machines have enjoyed remarkable rallies. LUNR shares jumped over 70% in recent weeks following bullish analyst coverage, riding on the momentum of its successful lunar landing milestone. However, amid this space sector enthusiasm, another contender deserves serious consideration for different reasons.

Intuitive Machines: Proven Capability, But Limited Scope

Intuitive Machines made headlines in February 2024 by landing its Odysseus Nova-C class lander on the moon—marking America’s first crewed lunar touchdown since Apollo 17 in 1972. The company operates across multiple space initiatives, with strong ties to NASA contracts. Yet despite these accomplishments, the company’s growth trajectory may face limitations compared to emerging competitors.

The Case for Firefly Aerospace: Diversification Meets Momentum

Firefly Aerospace, which debuted on public markets in August via IPO under ticker FLY, presents a compelling alternative for investors seeking broader exposure to the space and defense sectors.

Lunar Operations with Institutional Backing

Firefly is aggressively pursuing lunar infrastructure. In Q3 2025, the company secured a substantial $176.7 million NASA award for commercial lunar payload services, tasking the company with delivering five NASA-backed payloads to the moon’s south pole by 2029. This contract validates the company’s technical credibility and provides predictable revenue streams.

Strategic Defense Expansion

What distinguishes Firefly from traditional space companies is its calculated pivot into defense technologies. In October, the company completed an $855 million acquisition of SciTec, a defense specialist in space domain awareness and missile defense systems. Shortly after, Firefly partnered with established defense contractor Kratos Defense & Security Solutions to develop advanced hypersonic capabilities.

This dual-track strategy creates multiple revenue channels: NASA contracts provide stability, while defense sector contracts offer higher-margin growth opportunities.

The Valuation Disconnect: An Opportunity?

Here’s where the narrative becomes interesting: Despite Firefly’s expanding contract portfolio and strategic positioning, the stock has declined more than 42% since its August debut. This stands in stark contrast to Intuitive Machines’ recent surge, suggesting potential market mispricing of Firefly’s longer-term potential.

Comparing the Competitors

Both companies operate in the space economy, but their business models diverge significantly. Intuitive Machines focuses predominantly on lunar operations and space infrastructure. Firefly combines similar lunar ambitions with a meaningful defense division, effectively creating a more diversified revenue base. Additionally, Firefly’s recent acquisitions and partnerships suggest management execution on its growth strategy, whereas Intuitive Machines’ near-term catalysts appear more limited to incremental NASA contract awards.

The Bottom Line

The space industry remains in early innings, and both companies may ultimately succeed. However, for investors seeking exposure to both space operations and defense sector tailwinds, Firefly Aerospace’s strategic positioning—coupled with its valuation discount—may represent a more compelling risk-reward proposition than chasing Intuitive Machines at elevated multiples.