From Holiday Shoppers to Portfolio Winners: How Record-Breaking Retail Traffic Translates to ETF Gains

Record numbers of consumers flocked to retailers during Super Saturday—the final shopping push before Christmas—with approximately 158.9 million shoppers participating both online and in physical stores. This represents a 1.1% increase from 157.2 million the previous year and tops the previous benchmark of 158.5 million set in 2022. While traditional economic pressures persist, this late-season retail explosion creates meaningful opportunities for ETF investors seeking exposure to the consumer sector.

The Paradox of Modern Consumer Behavior

Today’s shopper operates within contradictory market conditions. On one hand, consumers are prioritizing quality and intentional purchases over chasing discounts—a shift captured in recent data pointing toward a more sophisticated retail environment. On the other hand, macroeconomic headwinds including inflation concerns, tariff implications, and softening labor markets are constraining overall spending capacity.

The result? A bifurcated economy where total holiday spending is anticipated to exceed $1 trillion, yet individual household budgets remain compressed. S&P Global Ratings projects a 4% growth in U.S. holiday retail sales for 2025 compared to 2024, though this expansion stems primarily from price inflation rather than increased purchase volumes. Consumers are navigating carefully, and retailers are adapting accordingly.

Where Retail ETFs Find Resilience

The structural winners in this environment share common characteristics: scale, pricing power, and omnichannel capabilities. Mega-cap retailers like Walmart (WMT) and Costco (COST) have successfully captured so-called “trade-down” traffic—affluent consumers seeking value—creating a defensive moat even as broader economic momentum slows.

Amazon (AMZN) exemplifies another winning formula, combining seamless digital commerce with last-minute fulfillment options and in-store integration. These strengths matter when consumer confidence fluctuates. Looking toward 2026, Fitch Ratings anticipates modestly positive retail sales, driven by a full year of tariff-driven inflation and modest consumer staples growth, partially tempered by weakness in discretionary categories.

For ETF portfolios, this environment rewards efficiency, brand loyalty, and differentiated distribution networks—precisely the attributes concentrated in top-tier retail funds.

Four ETFs Positioned for Retail Strength

VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) represents broad retail exposure, holding 26 of the world’s largest and most-traded retailers. The fund allocates substantially to AMZN (19.53%), WMT (11.79%), and COST (8.06%). RTH has delivered 11.6% year-to-date performance with $248 million in assets under management, charging 35 basis points in annual expenses. Recent trading volume reached 0.01 million shares.

ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) targets pure-play e-commerce growth across 19 companies. Top holdings include AMZN (23.35%), Alibaba (BABA) (11.44%), and eBay (EBAY) (8.11%). ONLN has soared 31.9% year to date, managing $179.17 billion in average market capitalization, with a 58 basis point fee structure and recent volume of 0.02 million shares.

Global X E-commerce ETF (EBIZ) diversifies globally across 41 selective e-commerce operators. Leading positions include Expedia (EXPE) at 6.10%, Shopify (SHOP) at 5.57%, and BABA at 4.87%. The fund has advanced 19.4% year to date with $51 million in net assets, charging 50 basis points, trading 0.01 million shares recently.

Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) provides targeted exposure to 97 U.S. consumer staples companies, emphasizing defensive positioning. Key holdings are WMT (14.48%), COST (11.96%), and Procter & Gamble (10.05%). FSTA has gained 2.4% year to date, manages $1.33 billion in assets, charges just 8 basis points, and traded 0.19 million shares in the last session.

Each fund offers distinct risk-return characteristics suited to different investor objectives within the expanding retail opportunity set.