Soybeans Stage Recovery Attempt Amid Mixed Market Signals on Tuesday

Soybean futures are attempting a bounce on Tuesday, with prices posting modest 3 to 4 cent advances after Monday’s sharp selloff that saw the front months retreat 9 to 10 cents. The session showed reduced participation, with open interest declining by 15,996 contracts overall, though the January contract experienced a more significant pullback of 32,102 contracts ahead of Wednesday’s First Notice Day.

Price Movement and Cash Market Status

The cmdtyView national average for cash soybeans fell 8 cents to $9.80 3/4. Soymeal futures faced headwinds, closing $2.50 lower at $4.90/ton, while Soy Oil managed to capture some upside, rising 6 to 10 points on the back of crude oil’s recovery. January soybeans closed Monday at $10.49 1/2 (down 9 1/4 cents) and are currently up 3 1/2 cents, while March futures sit at $10.63 1/2 (off 9 cents, up 3 1/2 cents intraday) and May contracts at $10.75 1/4 (down 9 cents, up 3 1/4 cents presently).

Export Activity and Global Demand

Recent export developments reveal a mixed picture. The USDA reported a private export sale of 100,000 MT of soybeans destined for Egypt on Monday. The latest Export Inspections report showed 750,312 MT (27.57 mbu) of soybeans shipped during the week ending December 25—a decline of 19.3% from the prior week and 54.4% below the comparable period last year.

China led destination countries with 135,417 MT of shipments, while Egypt received 127,017 MT and Vietnam imported 89,227 MT. The marketing year cumulative total has reached 15.396 MMT (565.71 mbu), representing a substantial 46.3% drop compared to the same timeframe in the prior year, signaling persistent demand weakness in international markets.

Geopolitical Pressures Weigh on Markets

Beyond fundamentals, escalating military exercises by Chinese forces around Taiwan continue to create geopolitical headwinds, adding uncertainty to US-China trade dynamics and weighing on commodity sentiment more broadly.