MSM Dividend Run: Can History Repeat for This Quarterly Payer?

MSC Industrial Direct Co Inc (NYSE: MSM) is signaling another potential dividend run opportunity, with its upcoming ex-dividend date of 01/14/26 and a quarterly dividend of $0.87/share. But what does this mean for investors seeking capital appreciation alongside dividend income?

Understanding the Dividend Run Mechanism

The concept is straightforward: stock prices typically decline by approximately the dividend amount on the ex-dividend date, since new buyers no longer qualify for the payment. This mechanical adjustment creates an interesting dynamic—if a stock only fell on each ex-date and never recovered, it would eventually reach zero, which contradicts the behavior of fundamentally sound, profitable companies.

The inverse logic suggests that ahead of any dividend payment, there should exist upward momentum as the market anticipates the coming distribution. This built-in pressure for appreciation before the ex-dividend date is what investors call a “dividend run.”

The Two-Week Strategy: MSM’s Track Record

One popular approach among dividend-focused traders involves a specific timeframe: purchasing shares approximately two weeks (ten trading days) before the ex-dividend date, then selling the day before ex-date to capture capital gains. This locks in appreciation while avoiding the mechanical price decline that occurs once the dividend is stripped from the share price.

Examining MSM’s recent performance under this framework reveals compelling results:

Recent Dividend Run Performance:

Over these four dividend cycles, MSM delivered positive runs in 3 out of 4 instances, accumulating $12.20 in total capital gains—a figure that substantially exceeds the combined dividend payments of $3.42 across the same period.

What’s Next for MSM?

With an implied annualized yield of 4.01%, MSM offers both dividend income and the potential for run-related capital appreciation. The stock is scheduled to pay its next $0.87/share quarterly dividend on 01/28/26, with the ex-dividend date arriving on 01/14/26.

While historical patterns don’t guarantee future outcomes, MSM’s consistent performance suggests it deserves attention from investors incorporating dividend runs into their trading toolkit. Whether this January ex-date will produce another positive run remains to be seen—but the historical probability is worth noting.