Recently, a phenomenon worth noting: this year, the Nasdaq has risen by 21%, while Bitcoin has instead fallen by 18%. This is not just ordinary market fluctuation but reflects a fundamental shift in the pricing logic of crypto assets.

By 2025, Bitcoin and US stocks are no longer closely correlated as they once were. From the correlation coefficient perspective, the two have dropped from 0.68 in 2021 to 0.5 now, hitting a three-year low. Why is this happening? In fact, it’s because Bitcoin’s intrinsic value anchor is changing.

**Policy signals have become the dominant factor**

In the past few years, halving cycles were an important reference for Bitcoin’s movement. That’s no longer the case. The US government’s stance directly influences the price—when policies are friendly, prices surge; when progress falls short of expectations, collective sell-offs occur. The 30% drop in December was fundamentally driven by panic selling of leveraged positions.

**Institutional choices are very selective**

Major players like BlackRock and Fidelity have bought a significant amount of Bitcoin through ETFs, holding 5.7%-7.4% of the circulating supply. But you know what? They only care about mainstream coins. As long as the market cap is large enough and the regulatory framework is clear, it’s favored by institutions. As for other coins, in the eyes of institutions, they are just gambling tools and are not attractive at all.

What does this mean? Retail investors who still operate under the old logic of "if US stocks go up, Bitcoin will follow" will eventually suffer losses. Moving forward, Bitcoin’s trajectory is less about technical or emotional factors and more about policy and institutional capital. The rules of this game have already quietly changed.