Are central banks around the world going their separate ways? 2026 may see an unprecedented policy misalignment.

JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates only once this year, while Goldman Sachs predicts a series of rate cuts starting in March—what's the root of this divergence? The tug-of-war between unemployment rates and inflation. On one side, the labor market shows signs of weakness; on the other, prices remain somewhat "stubborn." It is precisely because of this contradiction that the Fed's decisions will be very cautious.

But a more dramatic scenario could be: while the Federal Reserve is still debating whether to significantly loosen monetary policy, Japan and the European Central Bank are quietly heading in the opposite direction—raising interest rates. You read that right, this is "policy divergence." Such a situation has rarely occurred in the crypto era, and if it truly unfolds, the consequences will be profound.

Why is this so important for the crypto market? Simply put, cross-border capital will be reallocated. When interest rate differentials between regions widen, hot money will definitely seek the highest yields. The 24/7 nonstop crypto market will become the "preferred outlet" for global liquidity. Places that traditional finance finds hard to access will instead become new battlegrounds for risk aversion and arbitrage.

What could be the outcome? Bitcoin might truly decouple from the US stock market—this is not a new idea, but the "why" behind the decoupling will change. It will no longer be just about risk assets resonating together, but about liquidity flowing back elsewhere. Meanwhile, on-chain issued sovereign bonds (RWA assets) will also face tests, as the global interest rate environment itself is splitting.

Ultimately, this is not a bull or bear issue, but a reconstruction of the entire liquidity structure. You need to think clearly: continue to hold mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, or proactively position in the RWA sector, or hold stablecoins and wait for the situation to unfold? Different choices reflect different judgments on the big trend of "global policy divergence."

Share your thoughts: if central banks really start to operate in opposite directions, how do you plan to adjust your strategy?