#数字资产动态追踪 Recent movements of ETH and BTC require caution

Many people are optimistic that the current rebound can continue, but from the market perspective, this looks more like a trap to lure in buyers. Ethereum may test the 2700 level next, or even approach the support around 2600, ultimately stabilizing within the 1800-2300 range. The situation for Bitcoin is similarly worrying—an obvious distribution pattern has already appeared. After rising for three years, it will at least need to retest around 60000.

Retail investors often fall into a cognitive trap: they always think prices will rise infinitely. But think about it—if everyone holds chips, who will buy in when the price is pushed up? That’s the core issue. We saw a major dip around 126000, with a target of 78100; Ethereum also dropped from around 1500 to its current level. Many people simply can't understand why the decline was so large. In fact, during this market cycle, if it weren’t for leverage, Ethereum would have already broken below 2000 to maintain its face.

Regarding the altcoin season and bull market? Honestly, these two are almost impossible under the current environment. If they do appear, it would mean forcing leverage traders to unload their previously accumulated chips—which clearly doesn’t align with their interests. Many altcoins’ circulating chips have already been taken by retail investors, who have experienced multiple bottom-fishing opportunities, each time at lower prices.

In this current market, my judgment is that we are at the start of a bear market—and just the beginning, far from the bottom. Do not casually buy the dip unless you can "punch a hole" through the market; otherwise, it’s not the right time to bottom fish. Looking at Ethereum’s monthly chart, the previous bull run lasted 3-5 months, characterized by repeated V-shaped rebounds. Breaking new lows on the monthly chart is highly probable.