2025-12-31 17:00:24

#Strategy加码BTC配置 📊 US December Non-Farm Payrolls Preview: How Does Citi View This Employment Report

Citi Bank releases its forecast first: before next week's non-farm data is released, their numbers are—12,000 new jobs in December, with the unemployment rate possibly reaching 4.7%.

At first glance, rising unemployment might make many think that an economic chill is coming. Indeed, recent market sentiment generally feels that the employment market is cooling modestly, and such signals are also used as potential support for the Fed to start cutting rates. But there is an important detail:

Citi points out that the rise in the unemployment rate may not be bad news. Because this wave of unemployment increase is partly due to a rebound in labor force participation—meaning more people are actively looking for work rather than being passively unemployed. This precisely indicates that economic confidence is recovering. Looking at the latest layoffs data, it remains at a historic low, showing that companies are still protecting jobs.

Therefore, the same data can tell completely different stories from different perspectives: on the surface, the unemployment rate is rising, but the underlying logic isn't as fragile as it seems.

What does this mean for the crypto market? An employment environment that is neither overheating (no inflation panic) nor too cold (no recession nightmare) is just the optimal macro backdrop for the Fed to smoothly shift to an easing mode and continue providing liquidity to risk assets. What will next week's data look like? Let's see together.

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SerumSquirter

· 11h ago

I'm convinced by Citigroup's logic: rising unemployment rates are actually a good thing? It's key for workers to actively seek jobs, not just be laid off. This truly changes the game. The Federal Reserve continues to flood the market with liquidity, so there's still hope for BTC in this wave. Going long is the right move.

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AirdropDreamBreaker

· 23h ago

Citibank's interpretation still has some substance; rising unemployment rate ≠ a bad thing. The key is the subsequent logic— the rebound in the labor force participation rate indeed indicates that people's confidence hasn't completely dissipated.

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OldLeekNewSickle

· 2025-12-31 17:30

Citigroup's set of talking points is quite interesting. Basically, they are trying to pave the way for a rate cut. Rising unemployment rate = economic confidence recovery; this logic has to be twisted quite a bit to make sense... That said, a loose environment is indeed friendly to risk assets. Just for your reference, everyone.

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LightningSentry

· 2025-12-31 17:29

Citigroup's explanation sounds like they're trying to spin the rising unemployment rate as a positive, suggesting that a rebound in the labor force participation rate indicates a recovery in economic confidence? I feel like most people are just being forced to look for a second job... But on the other hand, this easing expectation is indeed favorable for BTC allocation. Let's wait and see the non-farm payroll data.

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BlockchainBrokenPromise

· 2025-12-31 17:22

I've heard this kind of rhetoric from Citibank too many times: rising unemployment means people are looking for jobs? That logic is a bit... well, never mind, anyway BTC is just going up.

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DuskSurfer

· 2025-12-31 17:21

I buy into Citibank's logic. An increase in the unemployment rate isn't necessarily a bad thing; the key is whether the participation rate rebounds. That's the real signal.

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OptionWhisperer

· 2025-12-31 17:18

Citigroup's interpretation is indeed interesting; unemployment rises but labor force participation rebounds. This logic is definitely bullish for BTC.

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