There's a seemingly absurd but increasingly discussed question in Washington: if Bitcoin crashes, will the government use taxpayers' money to bail out the market?

Recent rumors suggest that the US might include crypto assets under the "Too Big to Fail" (TBTF) umbrella. It sounds like good news — Bitcoin and JPMorgan enjoying the same bailout privileges. But the logic behind this may not be so straightforward.

**The True Intent Behind the Policy**

On the surface, this is to prevent a second FTX-style collapse by protecting retail investors through regulatory frameworks. But how would it actually work? If stablecoins (like USDC) are fully backed by US Treasuries, and exchanges are directly regulated by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar's global dominance could be further reinforced through the crypto market. Meanwhile, high compliance costs would naturally filter out small exchanges and projects, allowing large institutions to easily monopolize the market share.

**Foreseeable Changes in Retail Costs**

Exchanges would need to pay deposit insurance and maintain compliance departments like traditional banks, and these costs would ultimately be passed on to users — transaction fees could double. Another reality is that, with government backing, the wild growth phase of Bitcoin with 50% daily swings would come to an end. Dreaming of getting rich with "hundred-bagger" coins? That's basically unlikely now. The strict control of volatility means opportunities for high-risk investors will disappear.

**Large Capital Still Waiting to Enter**

But from another perspective, big capital like pension funds and insurance companies are eagerly waiting. Once the government endorses, trillions of dollars will steadily flow into the Bitcoin market, pushing prices higher — but the gains will be much more moderate, and the dramatic surges and crashes will exit the stage. Altcoins will face a major cleanup, with only large projects surviving.

So this is not an upgrade to retail investors' paradise, but a reallocation of market power.