There has been a particularly striking development in the past two years — the US stock market has been soaring while Bitcoin has fallen into trouble. As an analyst who has been active in the digital asset field for nearly a decade, I have to admit, this is the first time I’ve seen such a situation.

Numbers tell the story well. By mid-December, the S&P 500 index had gained over 16% this year, while Bitcoin experienced negative growth, with a decline of about 3%. Looking back at history, since 2014, there has been no instance of the stock market strengthening while Bitcoin weakens.

The most bizarre part is — all of this is happening during a time when the current government is actively embracing the crypto industry. Normally, favorable policies should have allowed the crypto market to thrive, but reality has slapped everyone hard.

**The story behind the data**

In the second half of 2025, the financial markets experienced an unprecedented divergence. The three major US stock indices rose together — Nasdaq up 21%, S&P 500 up 14.35%, Dow Jones up 12.11%. But what about Bitcoin? It fell nearly 18% from its peak this year, completely decoupling from the US stocks.

The most intense decline was in November, when Bitcoin plummeted 17.67% in a single month, directly breaking the $100,000 mark. Ironically, during that period, the US stock market experienced the longest government shutdown in history, yet it remained stable and showed remarkable resilience.

From a data perspective, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 in 2025 was only 0.5, far below the 0.68 level in 2021. What does this mean? The linkage logic between traditional finance and digital assets is breaking down.