The major movements brewing in the crypto market over the past few months have finally come to light—long-term Bitcoin holders (LTH) have stopped selling. This is the first time since July this year, and the buzz even surpasses the volume of ETF approvals that year.

As an observer who has worked in the blockchain space for 7 years and experienced three bull-bear cycles, I believe the significance of this signal should not be underestimated. It reflects not only a change in the holding decisions of veteran players but also a crucial turning point as the market transitions from a "bloodletting period" to a "recovery period."

Beginners often ask: Isn't it just that holders are not selling coins? Is it really necessary to pay so much attention? In fact, this hides a fundamental shift in market supply and demand dynamics. Let's look at the data: in this 2025 rally, the selling wave of LTHs has been unprecedented, with approximately $300 billion worth of long-term locked Bitcoin being reactivated throughout the year. Over two years, 20% of the circulating supply has experienced at least one movement.

But the turning point is right here. According to the latest warning from on-chain analysis firms, the LTH expenditure rate in December has fallen to its lowest point in three weeks. The five-month-long selling pressure is coming to an end. In other words: everything that needed to be sold has been sold, and the remaining are the core players who are resolutely holding.

Another supporting factor is the emergence of the cost basis line. The average holding cost for LTHs over a 6-12 month cycle is around $93,000, and the current price just happens to be near this cost basis, providing support. Holders without profit margins tend to wait and see; they are not in a rush to sell. This holding inertia itself forms the foundation for the next upward movement.