**Ethereum and Bitcoin Price Trend Analysis**

Is the current rebound of the second pancake? To put it plainly, it's just a trap to lure buyers. Don't be fooled by the rally; it will break below 2700, then approach 2600, and ultimately at least touch the range of 1800 to 2300. The same applies to Bitcoin— the standard distribution pattern has already appeared. After rising for three years, it will inevitably drop back toward around 60000.

Many people can't understand the logic behind this. The retail investors are constantly hoping for an endless rise, never considering one question: with all the chips in hand, who will buy and take the goods? Looking at the drop from 126000 to around 78100, and the second pancake from 1500, such a large decline, and some still wonder why it fell so much. Honestly, if it weren't for the leveraged lenders trying to preserve Ethereum's reputation, it would have broken below 2000 long ago.

**Why There Won't Be a Altcoin Season or Bull Market**

Many hope for an altcoin season and a bull market, but that's simply unrealistic. If these two occurred, it would mean the leveraged lenders are forced to release the chips they've taken in. How could that happen? The problem is, a large portion of the altcoin chips have already been taken by retail investors, giving multiple bottom-fishing opportunities, each at a lower price than before. The big players have long since emptied their positions.

**Real Market Judgment**

The current situation is definitely the start of a bear market. Note, it's just beginning, not nearing the end. This means the bottom is deep and unseen. Don't rush to buy the dip unless you can break through a hole, otherwise now is not the time to bottom fish. Open the Ethereum monthly chart— the last bull run lasted only 3 to 5 months, with repeated V-shaped rebounds, so this time, a new monthly low is inevitable.