2025-12-31 17:22:04

The US dollar has plummeted by 9.5% in 2025, marking the worst performance in eight years. Behind this are the impacts of Trump's tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments. A research team from Deutsche Bank even bluntly stated that this is the worst situation since the era of free-floating exchange rates.

What makes the situation more complicated is the aggressive liquidity injection by the Federal Reserve. They are flooding the market with 40 billion USD in Treasury bonds every month, totaling 220 billion USD for the year. Where will this money ultimately flow? The market is already betting that there will be another 2-3 rate cuts in 2026. In contrast, the European Central Bank remains on hold, and the widening interest rate differential has further worsened the dollar's predicament.

Institutional voices are diverse. JPMorgan conservatively predicts only one rate cut, while Goldman Sachs is more aggressive, forecasting three cuts in March, and the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank might even follow with rate hikes. These differing expectations have confused cross-border hot money—funds are starting to shift, and the flow of capital is being reshuffled. The correlation between BTC and US stocks has plummeted, sending a clear signal: the risk-averse narrative is being redefined.

On-chain sovereign debt tokenization has suddenly become the new favorite among institutions, and the Lightning Network ecosystem is also experiencing an explosion. Some even compare it to this: gold is just Bitcoin that can't be connected online. Capital is voting with its feet, and institutions are疯狂加仓BTC.

If you plan to stay in this market through 2026, keep an eye on these signals: the timing of the US debt yield curve turning positive, and the node where BTC open interest surpasses 40 billion. Don't miss the bottom-fishing signals in on-chain data either. Black swans will always appear—holding some USD cash, BTC put options, and gold can help you survive longer.

The question is, can your position really withstand the pressure? Are you holding BTC passively, waiting for liquidity to arrive, or shorting mainstream assets to hedge risks, or betting everything on rate cuts? Each of these choices comes with a cost.

BTC1,74%

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ForkLibertarian

· 2025-12-31 17:51

The Fed's recent actions are truly outrageous, throwing out 220 billion just like that... Hot money has already fled, I dare to bet --- A positive interest rate spread is the real signal. Holding dollars right now feels like holding a hot potato --- Finally, someone understands the decoupling of BTC and the US stock market --- Gold is just Bitcoin that can't be connected to the internet, that analogy is perfect --- The problem is, if the rate cut policy really comes, will the cash I hold still be worth anything... --- Institutions are疯狂加仓BTC, while retail investors are still debating whether to cut losses or not --- Missed the wave of on-chain sovereign debt tokenization, I regret it to death --- The 40 billion open interest threshold still has to wait, is it too early to enter now? --- I made money from the dollar plummeting, but a new problem has arisen --- It seems I should allocate some gold, or else I might really suffer

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TokenAlchemist

· 2025-12-31 17:50

dollar collapse narrative is getting priced in way too fast... the real alpha is tracking where institutional capital actually flows, not what goldman's model spits out. BTC-equity decoupling is chef's kiss tho—means the arbitrage surface finally opened up for real.

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MidnightTrader

· 2025-12-31 17:40

The Fed's recent liquidity injection is truly unreasonable, pouring in 220 billion directly, and hot money is all confused. The more fiercely institutions fight, the more I want to buy the dip—just waiting to see who can't hold on first. Is the decoupling signal between BTC and the US stock market? I'm watching closely; this risk-avoidance narrative is indeed reshuffling. Betting everything on policy? I don't have that guts; a bit of gold and options are my lifeline. When will the US bond yield spread turn positive? I feel we'll see the answer by the end of the year. Funds are re-choosing sides; I just want to see how long institutions can keep adding to BTC. By the way, gold is just Bitcoin without internet—this analogy is brilliant. Now I understand what it means for capital to vote with its feet. The question remains—the position you hold, can it really withstand until the yield spread turns positive? I'm just waiting for a breakthrough.

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MintMaster

· 2025-12-31 17:37

The recent decline of the US dollar is quite sharp... Speaking of which, institutions are now accumulating BTC, it really feels like the sentiment has shifted --- It's either the Fed flooding the market or the ECB holding steady. How are retail investors supposed to play? I'm completely confused --- "Gold is just Bitcoin that can't be connected to the internet"... That analogy is perfect. Institutions are definitely voting with their feet this time --- In 2026, we still have to keep playing. We must monitor those key signal points closely, or else we’ll really get cut --- The question is, who can truly withstand it? Those betting everything on rate cuts are brave... or maybe just gamblers --- On-chain government bond tokenization, Lightning Network explosion—feels like Web3 is really here --- The dollar's worst performance in 8 years, yet BTC and US stock correlation has plummeted. The signals are undeniably clear --- I'm still a bit anxious... I need to keep some USD cash and put on put options to feel secure

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